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<blockquote data-quote="gizmo33" data-source="post: 4789026" data-attributes="member: 30001"><p>But IMO this makes my point. Think of it this way: chance of dying from witchcraft nowadays = 0%. Chance of dying from witchcraft during the 1600s = 0%. Nothing has actually changed about the underlying statistics - so it is very much about what people *thought*. It's also very arguable that people even thought *at the time* that their chance of dying from witchcraft was greater than being killed from other causes. I think it would be a misleading exaggeration to say that the people of the 1600s thought that the bulk of deaths occurred due to witchcraft. </p><p> </p><p>But then take it a step further. Which is a more likely situation - dying in a car crash or an airplane crash? Far more effort is spent in trying to prevent the one than the other. This is not a matter of statistics, obviously (statistics that everyone actually knows). This has to do with a psychology of perceived risk. The amount of vulnerability people feel about a situation needs to be factored into the way a society prepares for the situation. </p><p> </p><p>This kind of thinking, arguably, was a huge motivator behind the witch hysteria of the 1600s. Much to the point: the concern about witches spread into areas *in spite of the fact* that there had been no previous activity. People and their grandfathers don't need to have experienced it in order to be afraid of it. And to spill a lot of ink and blood in an attempt to prevent it. All it would take, given the right circumstances, is some lurid story (true or not) and some anxiety about the unknown. What *could* happen scares people as much as any statistical information about what has happened (look at most of the television news). </p><p> </p><p>Consider a typical DnD world: are there groups of strangers walking around with the capability to burn down your town? Is there a sensational story being told in the taverns about such an occurrence (real or not)? While a witch-hysteria-type reaction is an extreme case, I think it illustrates that people won't always ignore threats - even when they aren't statistically plausible. </p><p> </p><p>Now if one would like to make a lot of the "hasn't happened in 100 years" line of reasoning, then ultimately I concur with Treebore's comments. At some point if the campaign world bears no resemblance to the "Points of Light" type campaign setting then it's beyond what I think my ideas can cover. My comments were originally intended for a DM who felt that his towns were too vulnerable and support the notion that NPCs won't necessarily wait for something bad to happen before they are prepared. Beyond that I don't think they can be of much use.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="gizmo33, post: 4789026, member: 30001"] But IMO this makes my point. Think of it this way: chance of dying from witchcraft nowadays = 0%. Chance of dying from witchcraft during the 1600s = 0%. Nothing has actually changed about the underlying statistics - so it is very much about what people *thought*. It's also very arguable that people even thought *at the time* that their chance of dying from witchcraft was greater than being killed from other causes. I think it would be a misleading exaggeration to say that the people of the 1600s thought that the bulk of deaths occurred due to witchcraft. But then take it a step further. Which is a more likely situation - dying in a car crash or an airplane crash? Far more effort is spent in trying to prevent the one than the other. This is not a matter of statistics, obviously (statistics that everyone actually knows). This has to do with a psychology of perceived risk. The amount of vulnerability people feel about a situation needs to be factored into the way a society prepares for the situation. This kind of thinking, arguably, was a huge motivator behind the witch hysteria of the 1600s. Much to the point: the concern about witches spread into areas *in spite of the fact* that there had been no previous activity. People and their grandfathers don't need to have experienced it in order to be afraid of it. And to spill a lot of ink and blood in an attempt to prevent it. All it would take, given the right circumstances, is some lurid story (true or not) and some anxiety about the unknown. What *could* happen scares people as much as any statistical information about what has happened (look at most of the television news). Consider a typical DnD world: are there groups of strangers walking around with the capability to burn down your town? Is there a sensational story being told in the taverns about such an occurrence (real or not)? While a witch-hysteria-type reaction is an extreme case, I think it illustrates that people won't always ignore threats - even when they aren't statistically plausible. Now if one would like to make a lot of the "hasn't happened in 100 years" line of reasoning, then ultimately I concur with Treebore's comments. At some point if the campaign world bears no resemblance to the "Points of Light" type campaign setting then it's beyond what I think my ideas can cover. My comments were originally intended for a DM who felt that his towns were too vulnerable and support the notion that NPCs won't necessarily wait for something bad to happen before they are prepared. Beyond that I don't think they can be of much use. [/QUOTE]
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