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Ben Riggs: 'The Golden Age of TTRPGs is Dead'
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<blockquote data-quote="Osgood" data-source="post: 9234365" data-attributes="member: 32792"><p>When I was a kid in the 80s my mother was twice convinced by televangelists that the apocalypse was imminent, she was certain Y2K would be the end of the world, and of course, 2012 was surely the end because of the Mayan calendar... so I take prognostications of doom with a pretty hefty grain of salt. I suppose that <em>could </em>happen, but there's plenty of holes in the argument and it reads like someone who is frustrated with specific developments that he <em>personally </em>doesn't like, so he's come up with a plausible worse case scenario and laid out (or made up) facts to support it.</p><p></p><p>The OGL debacle was bad, but at then end of the day, I don't know that anyone can predict what the long term consequences will be. Here's an anecdote: I game with nine people between two groups, and less than half of them had even heard about it during the whole thing. Of those, only two had really following it beyond reading a headline, and their opinions where mixed. No one even entertained the idea of switching games or changing our buying habits. Granted we are middle-aged, no longer the main demographic of the player base, and perhaps younger players that are now the overwhelming majority of players had a different experience... my stepson and his wife are 30 and play with some friends about once a month; when I asked him about it, he had no clue what I was talking about. Passions were (and are) very high among people with a stake--content creators, you tubers, folks who post on these forums--but I'm just not sure how much the OGL really mattered to the average gamer.</p><p></p><p>Competing 5E derived games could certainly cut into D&D24's sales. Sure, probably. But will that be a long term problem? Back in the early 90's I got bored with the fantasy genre, so my group wound up trying out a lot of different games--Shadowrun, Star Wars, Rifts, TMNT, GURPS, some I can't even remember. Some we played for a long while, some we only played for one or two sessions before deciding it wasn't for us (Someone in my group bought at least one book for each of these games... so they were expensive experiments). In the end we wound up back with D&D. It's bound to be the case that some folks will run these new games for a while and drift back to D&D (perhaps adding in a few house rules from these other games). Missed sales in '24 may happen a year or two later--granted in the eyes of a shareholders, where the only figures that matter are profits right now, that will be both bad (2024) and good (2025 or whenever)!</p><p></p><p>As others have pointed out, there are plenty of factual errors, like CR still playing D&D or "6E" actually being not all that different from 5E (a good or bad thing depending on one's perspective!). I really think it will be impossible to predict what will happen in the next year or two. I don't think anyone could have predicted the past ten years a decade ago!</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Osgood, post: 9234365, member: 32792"] When I was a kid in the 80s my mother was twice convinced by televangelists that the apocalypse was imminent, she was certain Y2K would be the end of the world, and of course, 2012 was surely the end because of the Mayan calendar... so I take prognostications of doom with a pretty hefty grain of salt. I suppose that [I]could [/I]happen, but there's plenty of holes in the argument and it reads like someone who is frustrated with specific developments that he [I]personally [/I]doesn't like, so he's come up with a plausible worse case scenario and laid out (or made up) facts to support it. The OGL debacle was bad, but at then end of the day, I don't know that anyone can predict what the long term consequences will be. Here's an anecdote: I game with nine people between two groups, and less than half of them had even heard about it during the whole thing. Of those, only two had really following it beyond reading a headline, and their opinions where mixed. No one even entertained the idea of switching games or changing our buying habits. Granted we are middle-aged, no longer the main demographic of the player base, and perhaps younger players that are now the overwhelming majority of players had a different experience... my stepson and his wife are 30 and play with some friends about once a month; when I asked him about it, he had no clue what I was talking about. Passions were (and are) very high among people with a stake--content creators, you tubers, folks who post on these forums--but I'm just not sure how much the OGL really mattered to the average gamer. Competing 5E derived games could certainly cut into D&D24's sales. Sure, probably. But will that be a long term problem? Back in the early 90's I got bored with the fantasy genre, so my group wound up trying out a lot of different games--Shadowrun, Star Wars, Rifts, TMNT, GURPS, some I can't even remember. Some we played for a long while, some we only played for one or two sessions before deciding it wasn't for us (Someone in my group bought at least one book for each of these games... so they were expensive experiments). In the end we wound up back with D&D. It's bound to be the case that some folks will run these new games for a while and drift back to D&D (perhaps adding in a few house rules from these other games). Missed sales in '24 may happen a year or two later--granted in the eyes of a shareholders, where the only figures that matter are profits right now, that will be both bad (2024) and good (2025 or whenever)! As others have pointed out, there are plenty of factual errors, like CR still playing D&D or "6E" actually being not all that different from 5E (a good or bad thing depending on one's perspective!). I really think it will be impossible to predict what will happen in the next year or two. I don't think anyone could have predicted the past ten years a decade ago! [/QUOTE]
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