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Ben Riggs: 'The Golden Age of TTRPGs is Dead'
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<blockquote data-quote="Retreater" data-source="post: 9234434" data-attributes="member: 42040"><p>As long as we're all presenting uninformed, doom scenarios for the future of the hobby, I'll add mine...</p><p>1) Tales of the Valiant will flop. Kobold Press will jump back to D&D '24.</p><p>2) Matt Colville will produce a nice video basically saying "we tried something new, and I got to live a dream. Like Icarus, I flew too high." I think their RPG will be seen as an experiment but they will return to D&D '24 content once the design of the system stabilizes. Or he'll retire. </p><p>3) Paizo will keep being Paizo.</p><p>4) D&D '24 won't be a big update. They'll put the "bridging language" in the SRD and Creative Commons to bring those up to speed. Books (and even the rules themselves) will cease to be less important to the corporation. They will be making many times the money from monthly subscriptions than they ever did on each player buying a core rulebook every ten years. </p><p>5) The book sales of D&D '24 will not reach what '14 reached. This was the "Elvis year" of D&D. The factors that made D&D a huge success (Critical Role, Stranger Things, the pandemic, etc.) aren't as important anymore. </p><p>6) With D&D print making even less money than before, you can bet other methods of monetizing (or shuttering the brand) will be on the table for Hasbro. </p><p></p><p>tl;dr </p><p>My prediction: every rival (Daggerheart, Tales of the Valiant, MCDM, etc.) is going to be a fantasy heartbreaker. They will be dropped by their company within 1-2 years when D&D '24 has stabilized. Luckily, because of crowdfunding, they'll sell a lot of these initial books - but then why keep maintaining the product line when you can go back to D&D? This will give the companies some cash while they wait for D&D to figure out its stuff.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Retreater, post: 9234434, member: 42040"] As long as we're all presenting uninformed, doom scenarios for the future of the hobby, I'll add mine... 1) Tales of the Valiant will flop. Kobold Press will jump back to D&D '24. 2) Matt Colville will produce a nice video basically saying "we tried something new, and I got to live a dream. Like Icarus, I flew too high." I think their RPG will be seen as an experiment but they will return to D&D '24 content once the design of the system stabilizes. Or he'll retire. 3) Paizo will keep being Paizo. 4) D&D '24 won't be a big update. They'll put the "bridging language" in the SRD and Creative Commons to bring those up to speed. Books (and even the rules themselves) will cease to be less important to the corporation. They will be making many times the money from monthly subscriptions than they ever did on each player buying a core rulebook every ten years. 5) The book sales of D&D '24 will not reach what '14 reached. This was the "Elvis year" of D&D. The factors that made D&D a huge success (Critical Role, Stranger Things, the pandemic, etc.) aren't as important anymore. 6) With D&D print making even less money than before, you can bet other methods of monetizing (or shuttering the brand) will be on the table for Hasbro. tl;dr My prediction: every rival (Daggerheart, Tales of the Valiant, MCDM, etc.) is going to be a fantasy heartbreaker. They will be dropped by their company within 1-2 years when D&D '24 has stabilized. Luckily, because of crowdfunding, they'll sell a lot of these initial books - but then why keep maintaining the product line when you can go back to D&D? This will give the companies some cash while they wait for D&D to figure out its stuff. [/QUOTE]
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