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Bounded Accuracy: does it deliver as promised?
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<blockquote data-quote="jodyjohnson" data-source="post: 6391103" data-attributes="member: 5590"><p>Without bending backwards too far, in a 'what would Guard #14' do sense, the scenario works fine.</p><p></p><p>Firstly, even on a save and resistance the breath weapon is insta-kill for all the guards. Later they say even the best guard is still not as combat-ready as the Level 1 PCs (thus the Challenge scenario).</p><p></p><p>So while they give Guard stats with AC 16 (AC 14 with a bow), hp 11 and +3 to hit, they spend most of their time just Dodging and Hiding. Not including the earlier Fear effect. </p><p></p><p>So on any given round let's say only 20 shoot with a 30% success rate (discounting the darkness, cover, fear effect). 6 hits at 5 damage for each pass of the Dragon which spends other rounds out of range of breath Dashing or Dodging when the success rate is 15%. The dragon takes ~60hp per pass (2 1/2 rounds, and a full round). But kills 2.5 defenders (failed saves) and only injures 3.5 (targets who were hiding or dodging with cover and made saves resulting in mere - unconsciousness/death save territory). So the Defenders lose 6 for every 60 hp they inflict.</p><p></p><p>So the dragon can make 1 or 2 effective passes then Short Rest. Multiple times. Say, 6 passes where Archers fired and were exposed. So by the time the adventurers defend, the dragon is spent and the keep losses are in the 15 dead, 21 injured range.</p><p></p><p>Now if we assume the keep has 100s of these guards than the whole scenario is a problem (the enemy force is smaller and weaker). So after hours of periodic assault with the guards not shooting very effectively the dragon is still around. Why? Earlier fear cut the hit rate plus the guards stayed out of line of breath. The dragon starts with 200+ hit points and presumably he can short rest also for another 200+. He's got a ton of hit points, thus the scenario can hand wave the guards as ineffectual and yet have the Dragon retreat when he sustains only 10% damage.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="jodyjohnson, post: 6391103, member: 5590"] Without bending backwards too far, in a 'what would Guard #14' do sense, the scenario works fine. Firstly, even on a save and resistance the breath weapon is insta-kill for all the guards. Later they say even the best guard is still not as combat-ready as the Level 1 PCs (thus the Challenge scenario). So while they give Guard stats with AC 16 (AC 14 with a bow), hp 11 and +3 to hit, they spend most of their time just Dodging and Hiding. Not including the earlier Fear effect. So on any given round let's say only 20 shoot with a 30% success rate (discounting the darkness, cover, fear effect). 6 hits at 5 damage for each pass of the Dragon which spends other rounds out of range of breath Dashing or Dodging when the success rate is 15%. The dragon takes ~60hp per pass (2 1/2 rounds, and a full round). But kills 2.5 defenders (failed saves) and only injures 3.5 (targets who were hiding or dodging with cover and made saves resulting in mere - unconsciousness/death save territory). So the Defenders lose 6 for every 60 hp they inflict. So the dragon can make 1 or 2 effective passes then Short Rest. Multiple times. Say, 6 passes where Archers fired and were exposed. So by the time the adventurers defend, the dragon is spent and the keep losses are in the 15 dead, 21 injured range. Now if we assume the keep has 100s of these guards than the whole scenario is a problem (the enemy force is smaller and weaker). So after hours of periodic assault with the guards not shooting very effectively the dragon is still around. Why? Earlier fear cut the hit rate plus the guards stayed out of line of breath. The dragon starts with 200+ hit points and presumably he can short rest also for another 200+. He's got a ton of hit points, thus the scenario can hand wave the guards as ineffectual and yet have the Dragon retreat when he sustains only 10% damage. [/QUOTE]
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