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General Tabletop Discussion
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Careful Attack/Sure Strike: A mathematical analysis
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<blockquote data-quote="eamon" data-source="post: 4492238" data-attributes="member: 51942"><p>If you have a less than even chance of hitting a creature, careful attack can be better than twin strike, given a high enough careful attack bonus. This situation can occur. Fighting against an overlevel enemy isn't uncommon - for 6 players a 3rd level young black dragon is a low-end "hard" difficulty encounter (being 875XP, and the hard range being 900-1200XP), but it has 22AC, which a 1st level ranger can certainly hit - but not easily.</p><p></p><p>Certainly careful attack can be better, if the bonus is high enough. The problem is partially that any bonus high enough to make it see common use (+6 - +8?) is so high that it's begging to be abused by creative combos. Conversely, a bonus of +2 is completely pointless. I think a bonus of +4 is a reasonable compromise, though it's still a sucky power then, since in the situations where twin strike loses to careful attack with a +4 bonus you're only hitting on a 17 or higher... ...and though, especially if the circumstances are against you, this <em>can</em> happen, it's rare, and further, you're almost certainly better off spending your action doing something to improve the circumstances rather than almost certainly missing.</p><p></p><p>Perhaps the defense bonus fix would be reasonable - especially in combination with a higher bonus - a +4 to hit <em>and</em> a +1 to all defenses is probably still not broken.</p><p></p><p>As a bit of an aside, I find the stories that it used to be +4 and was then changed to +2 prerelease to be somewhat worrisome - I mean, how hard is it to see that careful attack is simply a situational power, even at +4, and a pretty terribly choice at +2?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="eamon, post: 4492238, member: 51942"] If you have a less than even chance of hitting a creature, careful attack can be better than twin strike, given a high enough careful attack bonus. This situation can occur. Fighting against an overlevel enemy isn't uncommon - for 6 players a 3rd level young black dragon is a low-end "hard" difficulty encounter (being 875XP, and the hard range being 900-1200XP), but it has 22AC, which a 1st level ranger can certainly hit - but not easily. Certainly careful attack can be better, if the bonus is high enough. The problem is partially that any bonus high enough to make it see common use (+6 - +8?) is so high that it's begging to be abused by creative combos. Conversely, a bonus of +2 is completely pointless. I think a bonus of +4 is a reasonable compromise, though it's still a sucky power then, since in the situations where twin strike loses to careful attack with a +4 bonus you're only hitting on a 17 or higher... ...and though, especially if the circumstances are against you, this [i]can[/i] happen, it's rare, and further, you're almost certainly better off spending your action doing something to improve the circumstances rather than almost certainly missing. Perhaps the defense bonus fix would be reasonable - especially in combination with a higher bonus - a +4 to hit [i]and[/i] a +1 to all defenses is probably still not broken. As a bit of an aside, I find the stories that it used to be +4 and was then changed to +2 prerelease to be somewhat worrisome - I mean, how hard is it to see that careful attack is simply a situational power, even at +4, and a pretty terribly choice at +2? [/QUOTE]
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Careful Attack/Sure Strike: A mathematical analysis
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