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Careful Attack/Sure Strike: A mathematical analysis
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<blockquote data-quote="KarinsDad" data-source="post: 4495096" data-attributes="member: 2011"><p>1 day in 10 if he actually used this Daily power every day he gets a chance. Against a single target.</p><p></p><p>9 days in 10, he just ends up doing less damage and no special that helps (which he could have done with a different At Will) in the previous round for no gain.</p><p></p><p>This means that for Villain's Menace and 5 encounters per day, this version of Sure Shot would help this particular Daily power for this Fighter <strong>once</strong> every 50 encounters or 5 levels. Every 3 or 4 levels if the PCs have fewer encounters per day.</p><p></p><p>Helping one encounter every 3 to 5 levels doesn't sound like it's doing a lot of good.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>Same example as above but with Sweeping Blow instead of Come and Get It:</p><p></p><p>Round one: Sure Strike D8 damage +2 to hit, +2 weapon, +1 damage Weapon Focus, average damage .55*(7.5) + .05*(11) = 4.675</p><p></p><p>Round two: Sweeping Blow 2 opponents, 19 Str, D8 damage +4 to hit, +2 weapon, +1 damage Weapon Focus, average damage 2 * (.65*(11.5) + .05*(15)) = 16.45</p><p></p><p>Two round total: 21.125</p><p></p><p>vs.</p><p></p><p>Round one: Reaping Strike 19 Str, D8 damage, +2 weapon, +1 damage Weapon Focus, average damage .45*(11.5) + .05*(15) + .5*(2) = 6.7</p><p></p><p>Round two: Sweeping Blow 2 opponents, 19 Str, D8 damage, +2 weapon, +1 damage Weapon Focus, average damage 2 * (.55*(11.5) + .05*(15)) = 14.15</p><p></p><p>Two round total: 20.85</p><p></p><p>Average damage is practically the same. The Fighter would need 3 or more adjacent opponents (where he would do an additional 7 average points of damage for each additional foe) for this to be really worthwhile. That does not occur every encounter. In fact, unless it is a minion encounter, 3 or more melee opponents only on the Fighter should be fairly rare.</p><p></p><p>And the Fighter might set up Sweeping Blow with Sure Strike and then have few enemies around him (because another PC blew away one or more opponents, or the opponents spread out or something). He did less damage with Sure Strike and then finds out that he does not even want to use his Sweeping Blow that next round. Opps. <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f609.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=";)" title="Wink ;)" data-smilie="2"data-shortname=";)" /></p><p></p><p></p><p>Again, I'm not saying that this version of Sure Strike will never help. I'm saying that due to the lack of multiple opponent attacks for a Fighter (and that does not mean 2 attacks, it means 3 or more), it will rarely help a situation and the Fighter does less damage on a lot of rounds, just to get a slight advantage once in a while.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="KarinsDad, post: 4495096, member: 2011"] 1 day in 10 if he actually used this Daily power every day he gets a chance. Against a single target. 9 days in 10, he just ends up doing less damage and no special that helps (which he could have done with a different At Will) in the previous round for no gain. This means that for Villain's Menace and 5 encounters per day, this version of Sure Shot would help this particular Daily power for this Fighter [b]once[/b] every 50 encounters or 5 levels. Every 3 or 4 levels if the PCs have fewer encounters per day. Helping one encounter every 3 to 5 levels doesn't sound like it's doing a lot of good. Same example as above but with Sweeping Blow instead of Come and Get It: Round one: Sure Strike D8 damage +2 to hit, +2 weapon, +1 damage Weapon Focus, average damage .55*(7.5) + .05*(11) = 4.675 Round two: Sweeping Blow 2 opponents, 19 Str, D8 damage +4 to hit, +2 weapon, +1 damage Weapon Focus, average damage 2 * (.65*(11.5) + .05*(15)) = 16.45 Two round total: 21.125 vs. Round one: Reaping Strike 19 Str, D8 damage, +2 weapon, +1 damage Weapon Focus, average damage .45*(11.5) + .05*(15) + .5*(2) = 6.7 Round two: Sweeping Blow 2 opponents, 19 Str, D8 damage, +2 weapon, +1 damage Weapon Focus, average damage 2 * (.55*(11.5) + .05*(15)) = 14.15 Two round total: 20.85 Average damage is practically the same. The Fighter would need 3 or more adjacent opponents (where he would do an additional 7 average points of damage for each additional foe) for this to be really worthwhile. That does not occur every encounter. In fact, unless it is a minion encounter, 3 or more melee opponents only on the Fighter should be fairly rare. And the Fighter might set up Sweeping Blow with Sure Strike and then have few enemies around him (because another PC blew away one or more opponents, or the opponents spread out or something). He did less damage with Sure Strike and then finds out that he does not even want to use his Sweeping Blow that next round. Opps. ;) Again, I'm not saying that this version of Sure Strike will never help. I'm saying that due to the lack of multiple opponent attacks for a Fighter (and that does not mean 2 attacks, it means 3 or more), it will rarely help a situation and the Fighter does less damage on a lot of rounds, just to get a slight advantage once in a while. [/QUOTE]
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