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Challenging Challenge Ratings

Cheiromancer

Adventurer
Upper Krust recently proposed changing the scaling rules for CR. Doubling the number of creatures still increases the Encounter Level (EL) by +2 (just like the official rules do) and thus doubling the xp awarded. But he also proposed that CR x 2 = EL + 6.

It doesn't look like a big difference from the previous system of CR x 2 = EL + 4, but it means that to determine the "challenge" of a creature you have to cube its CR instead of squaring it. Something I have had some difficulty accepting.

The official rule is that CR + 2 = EL + 2. In other words, one CR 12 monster is worth the same amount as two CR 10 monsters or four CR 8 monsters or eight CR 6 monsters or 16 CR 4 monsters. The rule isn't supposed to hold for an EL gap of more than 8 or so (and might be only approximate at more than 5 or so), but is generally supposed to be valid from between EL 1 and EL 20.

For epic level encounters we're more concerned about it applying at the upper end of the scale. It is generally held that PCs don't increase *that* quickly in power at the upper levels. Sure, there are things like blasphemy that can convert a few levels difference into an overwhelming difference, but generally the progression of AC, hp, attack rolls, damage rolls, Save DCs and base saving throws don't produce such dramatic differences. A 30th level character is not twice as powerful as he was at 28th level, or 8 times as powerful as he was at 24th level.

The solution to this difficulty is to replace the exponential curve with a polynomial. v5 of the Challenging Challenge Ratings appendix is equivalent to approximating the WotC exponential curve with a quadratic (CR squared). Challenge = the sum of the square of the individual CRs.

However UK's recent proposal would approximate the exponential curve with a tertic formula (CR cubed). Challenge = the sum of the cube of the individual CRs. I don't like it because it means that treasure is no longer proportional to the challenge. Unless you make treasure follow a tertic formula too- but the cubic formula works much better. (Treasure = character level cubed, times 100 gp. (Treasure from an encounter = challenge x 100 gp. At minimum- if treasure is lost/spent then the wealth won't keep up with experience. Unless experience is lost/spent too!).

But it is a better fit to the exponential curve than the quadratic is. Make a table of CRs with 2 ^ (CR/2) and compare it with (CR^2)/3.125 and (CR^3)/31.25. The polynomials undershoot the exponential at low levels, but not by too much. But the cubic makes a better fit at higher levels. Especially if you can recalculate the CRs of various high CR monsters to make them higher yet.

For example, if a monster is four times as tough as a CR 16 monster, then according to the WotC formula it would be a CR 20. But if you follow the quadratic expression it would be CR 32. Or CR 25 if you are using the tertic formula. It is less jarring to say that a CR 20 monster is "really" a CR 25 than to make a CR 32.

PCs are a special case. UK is saying that the CR of a player character is not his character level. (An open secret, really; a CR 10 monster is much stronger than a 10th level character). Rather, the CR is 2/3 the character level. I'm not sure how much of an approximation this is. If the actual number were not 0.66667 but 0.62996 (the cube root of 0.25) then a party of 4 nth level characters would have a challenge of exactly n cubed.

This would suggest that an encounter between 4 nth level characters and a CR n encounter would be a 50/50 chance; as likely to be a TPK as not. Which is not the case. And so I wonder about this aspect, at least, of UK's calculations.

The cubic ratio works better than the quadratic ratio at predicting "fight club" match-ups between monsters in the monster manual. Run an old white dragon (CR 15) against 2 young adult brass dragons (CR 10 each). Although the (quadratic) challenge is almost the same (225 vs 200), the white seems to have a significantly bigger advantage. You need to have 3 young adult brass dragons before it becomes very close; the (tertic) challenge in this case is 3375 vs 3000. Which according to my calculations appears to be true; the old white will probably defeat 3 YA brass, but not four.

Not that fight clubs show much- but I think different sorts of dragons are as good a measure as any as to how CR and numbers of opponents will interact.

This has clear implications for how to scale class benefits and spell progressions. Should a 30th level spellcaster be 44% more powerful than a 25th level caster (as the quadratic model would dictate)- or 73% more powerful?

Whether or not it is more accurate, a change to this basic formula is going to have ripple effects in feature breakdown like UK does in v5. Really, it depends on how you playtest the monsters. Say that you decided that a given monster was CR 20 in the old system because it was equivalent to 4 CR 10 monsters. In the new system it is too weak to be a CR 20, since a CR 20 is equivalent to 8 CR 10s. So the old CR 20 has to be reduced to CR 16. Unless the old CR 20 was playtested by taking 4 of them against a CR 40. In which case (assuming the CR 40 is still CR 40) the CR 20 is really CR 32. And so the features that you priced assuming the monster was a CR 20 now have to be priced differently.

Unless UK took very careful notes as to how he playtested the CRs of the monsters (or was very consistent in his playtesting), he'll have to start from scratch to determine the new CRs. And thus to price the features that add up to that number. Which means that it will all be much delayed. I find it all very irritating.

Anyway, that's where I am.
 

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Howdy Cheiromancer matey! :D

Cheiromancer said:
Upper Krust recently proposed changing the scaling rules for CR. Doubling the number of creatures still increases the Encounter Level (EL) by +2 (just like the official rules do) and thus doubling the xp awarded. But he also proposed that CR x 2 = EL + 6.

It doesn't look like a big difference from the previous system of CR x 2 = EL + 4, but it means that to determine the "challenge" of a creature you have to cube its CR instead of squaring it. Something I have had some difficulty accepting.

Does that mean you have accepted it yet and removed the pins from the 'Krust Doll' you fashioned?

They do say "To err is mortal, to forgive - divine" after all.

Cheiromancer said:
Unless UK took very careful notes as to how he playtested the CRs of the monsters (or was very consistent in his playtesting), he'll have to start from scratch to determine the new CRs.

Actually it only took about 3 hours to fix all the CRs from the MM and ELH. I already had all the raw data it was just a matter of applying the silver rule wholesale and then dividing by two-thirds to find the Challenge Rating. A few speedbumps included undead and those monsters possessing equipment, which needed some reverse engineering, but on the whole very little problems.

I'm actually having more problems simplifying the nomenclature of the transition (where now ECL and CR are seperated) to the point where its easy enough to be understood by everyone.

Cheiromancer said:
And thus to price the features that add up to that number. Which means that it will all be much delayed. I find it all very irritating.

Not sure if you are talking about v6 (?) but I already have it 75% finished, but I won't turn my full attention to it until after Ascension is released, currently Ascension just needs the art added (although that in itself is a month of work).

Cheiromancer said:
Anyway, that's where I am.

I think someone out there needs a hug! ;)
 

Cheiromancer

Adventurer
Upper_Krust said:
Not sure if you are talking about v6 (?) but I already have it 75% finished, but I won't turn my full attention to it until after Ascension is released, currently Ascension just needs the art added (although that in itself is a month of work).
I'll believe it when I see it. :D

I admit the IH looks like it is in the home stretch, but I am reminded of some paradoxes of Zeno. Besides, if Gods and Monsters hadn't been split off you'd still have a ways to go. IIRC the prerelease of IH was to have been only a few updates away from the completed work- a month or so of work. But my memory might be playing tricks on me after all this time.

Upper_Krust said:
Does that mean you have accepted it yet and removed the pins from the 'Krust Doll' you fashioned?
I'm still sore at you for your arrogant refusal to justify your changes with any mathematical evidence or argument. But it's not quite the seething fury it was a month ago. I'm warming to the idea of CR x 2 = EL + 6, but there is really nothing to accept until the revised CRs are published in v6. Or until a conversion algorithm is established (I don't think dividing the v5 CRs by 2/3 will do it).

Incidentally, do you actually use those tables (like the ones on your website) in your own research? I can't imagine not using polynomials myself; tables and graphs are strictly ancillary.
 

Hey Cheiromancer matey! :D

Cheiromancer said:
I'll believe it when I see it. :D

I admit the IH looks like it is in the home stretch, but I am reminded of some paradoxes of Zeno. Besides, if Gods and Monsters hadn't been split off you'd still have a ways to go. IIRC the prerelease of IH was to have been only a few updates away from the completed work- a month or so of work. But my memory might be playing tricks on me after all this time.

You're probably right. :eek:

Cheiromancer said:
I'm still sore at you for your arrogant refusal to justify your changes with any mathematical evidence or argument.

I told you that when I initially did my playtesting I didn't take into account the dwindling power of multiple weaker opponents as an encounter plays out.

When I redid the same tests the figures came up differently.

So to me the whole thing was a totally black and white scenario that stemmed on the point: "does the attacking power of multiple weaker opponents degrade over the course of a fight with a single more powerful opponent?"

The answer to that question is obviously a resounding YES. Therefore (as far as I can tell) theres nothing to debate. I made a mistake, simple as that.

Cheiromancer said:
But it's not quite the seething fury it was a month ago.

I never quite understood that...I just figured you were having a bad day.

Cheiromancer said:
I'm warming to the idea of CR x 2 = EL + 6,

I knew you'd see sense in the end. :p

Cheiromancer said:
but there is really nothing to accept until the revised CRs are published in v6.

Exactly, so there was no point you getting your knickers in a twist about nothing you silly sausage! :D

Cheiromancer said:
Or until a conversion algorithm is established (I don't think dividing the v5 CRs by 2/3 will do it).

For ECLs over 20 I also had to apply the silver rule wholesale (5/6ths), THEN use the 2/3rds to get the CR.

Cheiromancer said:
Incidentally, do you actually use those tables (like the ones on your website) in your own research? I can't imagine not using polynomials myself; tables and graphs are strictly ancillary.

Normally I just do it all in my head. I have a pretty good understanding off the dynamic so the tables are just for other people. Although I do think they are very useful if you have a specific Party Level in mind. An Excel spreadsheet of that would be great.

Although I have created a new table which is brilliant for working out multiple monsters of variable CR.
 

Cheiromancer

Adventurer
For ECLs over 20 I also had to apply the silver rule wholesale (5/6ths), THEN use the 2/3rds to get the CR.

I'm trying to understand what happens for non-epic monsters. Generic ones, insofar as this is possible, not ones that have an achilles heel that another monster can exploit. You mean multiply by 2/3, right? To go from v5 to v6? So the numbers get smaller? Is that all you did with the v5 numbers (Undead and equipment using monsters excepted)?

I don't understand. What happens if I take four CR 9 monsters and pit them against various CR 18 monster (all CRs from v5)? The little monsters are chosen to have a variety of talents, and the results are averaged (so the result is as generic as possible); do the big monsters almost always prevail? And does it turn out that you need eight CR 9 monsters to prevail against a CR 18 monster?

I was under the impression that the monster CRs in v5 obeyed the CR x 2 = EL + 4 rule. And so in a fight club setting you'd need 4 monsters of CR X to defeat one monster of CR 2X. Is that not the case? Do the monsters in v5 instead obey the rule that CR x 2 = EL + 6? And so you need 8 monsters of CR X to defeat one monster of CR 2X?
 

Cheiromancer said:
I'm trying to understand what happens for non-epic monsters. Generic ones, insofar as this is possible, not ones that have an achilles heel that another monster can exploit. You mean multiply by 2/3, right? To go from v5 to v6? So the numbers get smaller? Is that all you did with the v5 numbers (Undead and equipment using monsters excepted)?

Correct.

Cheiromancer said:
I don't understand. What happens if I take four CR 9 monsters and pit them against various CR 18 monster (all CRs from v5)?

Technically there are no CRs in v5, what I did was use ECL as a sort of surrogate CR to get everything on a level playing field.

Cheiromancer said:
The little monsters are chosen to have a variety of talents, and the results are averaged (so the result is as generic as possible); do the big monsters almost always prevail?

When I initially ran the data I forgot to dwindle the power of the weaker creatures as the battle went on. This meant the power of those weaker creatures, as a unit, stayed with them right until the end of the battle. Under those flawed rules 4-5 CR 9 = 1 CR 18.

Cheiromancer said:
And does it turn out that you need eight CR 9 monsters to prevail against a CR 18 monster?

Well I only deal with averages, obviously you can prevail with less if you get really good dice rolls. However, it now appears that you would need on average 8-11 CR 9 to = 1 CR 18.

Cheiromancer said:
I was under the impression that the monster CRs in v5 obeyed the CR x 2 = EL + 4 rule. And so in a fight club setting you'd need 4 monsters of CR X to defeat one monster of CR 2X. Is that not the case? Do the monsters in v5 instead obey the rule that CR x 2 = EL + 6? And so you need 8 monsters of CR X to defeat one monster of CR 2X?

Challenge Ratings don't change because of the new equation, only encounter levels change.
 

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