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Message: <blockquote data-quote="doctorbadwolf" data-source="post: 8316756" data-attributes="member: 6704184">I need some help figuring out probabilities in practice with a dice rolling method. I’d be very grateful for any insights y’all can give.  So, my TTPRG, Quest for Chevar, is a skills based game where character creation is very specific, and then gameplay is narrative, player facing, and open-ended. Basically, imagine if instead of the DM in dnd deciding whether something works, your check directly tells you, you say what that means, and the DM smooths over any transitions, NPC reactions, etc. It's a conversational system, but one in which much of the GM responsibility is put into the hands of the group, and the acting player.Anyway, I've realised thanks to [USER=6785785]@hawkeyefan[/USER] [USER=42582]@pemerton[/USER] [USER=82106]@AbdulAlhazred[/USER] [USER=16586]@Campbell[/USER] and others that, among some other insights that will lead to some further investigation, the roll vs DC model doesn't work as well for that, and I haven’t done as much as I can to put things in the player’s hands.   This thread is mostly about the dice. It’s also a plus thread, simply because I don’t want to see it detailed with stuff like “dice pools are bad, actually” or “if you want a success ladder just make it a pbta game”.   What I’m wondering about is the numbers relative to the dice, and how the odds play out.   Right now, the game rolls 1d10 + 1d10 per skill rank. Nothing else ever adds to a skill check, and skills govern everything that is rolled for in the game.  Attributes only interact with skills when you want to spend a resource to improve a skill result.   Each skill, in case it matters, is basically a description of a competence with some very simple parameters.   For instance, the Warp Specialty under the Geomancy Skill allows you to make portals.   Making a simple short distance portal between points you can see just takes an action. Doing so as a quick action, increasing distance or size, doing something complex or that requires another skill, or putting one or both portals where you can’t see, all require a skill check.    At chargen, you can have up to 4 total ranks in a skill specialty, for 5 dice, but most of your skills will be from 1-3 ranks.   So, rolling anywhere from 1 to 6 or 7 d10s, what does a pbta style success ladder need to be, for the following goals:  <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Each step on the ladder is a range of results (eg 1-8, 9-12, 13-15, 15+)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"> Lowest result: Total failure</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">One Step Up: Mitigated Failure (you fail, but can still get something out of the action or situation, use the action to set up something else, or otherwise mitigate your failure, or you can bargain for dire consequences or spend an attribute point to get one step higher on the ladder) </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Second Step Up: Mitigated Success (you succeed, but there’s a cost, or you can bargain or pay, as with the first step)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">3rd Step Up: Total Success. </li> </ul>Probability goals: <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Total Failure shouldn’t be common for trained characters under normal circumstances. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Mitigated Failure should be all you can get if you are untrained, with no help, an no prep, ie rolling 1 die, and even it should be uncommon (like 8 on 1d10). Most novice skilled checks should fall here and the next step, and it should be fairly rare for masters. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Mitigated Success should be the most common result for journeyman level characters, so 3-4 ranks. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Full Success should be possible for anyone with 2 ranks (3 dice) or more (or 1 rank (2 dice) if it can be done, so 20 at most). It should only be common for Journeymen or better, and only really common for Masters. </li> </ul>Circumstance can add or subtract dice, to a minimum of 1 die, max of 6 or 7 (probably).   So with all that, I can input stuff into anydice, but what I have trouble with is math burnout after about 20-30 minutes of reviewing different graphs, and collating that data into a full model I can build from.   Any thoughts? I know it’s a lot of info, but I hope the discussion will be fun for dice nerds?</blockquote>

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