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<blockquote data-quote="FrogReaver" data-source="post: 8450003" data-attributes="member: 6795602">Your first explanation was something totally else and now you've shifted the explanation why to 'losing concentration'.&nbsp; Always is a bit frustrating when that happens.That said, this was the reason I had expected you to go with initially.&nbsp; But the real question is how likely is it for a warlock to lose concentration twice before his next short rest.&nbsp; That's going to depend mostly on how many attacks he's facing, whether he has any AC boosts or Concentration save boosts.&nbsp; I'll ignore the last two parameters and set the warlocks AC at about 15 for this walkthrough (a reasonably moderate AC).&nbsp; Each attack will have about a 60% chance to hit you.&nbsp; Each hit will have about a 65% chance of maintaining concentration.&nbsp; This means each attack you face has a 0.6*0.35 = 21% chance of causing you to lose concentration.&nbsp; We could use that probability in a negative binomial distribution to determine how many times we can expect to be attacked before losing concentration twice.&nbsp; Without actually performing the calculation - the point is that we can expect to take a significant number of attacks before we would expect to lose than concentration.In terms of total damage caused hellish rebuke tends to stay competitive with hex for most of the game (primarily due to scaling warlock slots).&nbsp; If you were really prone to losing concentration I'd recommend hellish rebuke over hex.&nbsp; That said, hellish rebuke does have a bit of a targeting problem as you can't be sure you'll get to hit the target you want with it.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="FrogReaver, post: 8450003, member: 6795602"] Your first explanation was something totally else and now you've shifted the explanation why to 'losing concentration'. Always is a bit frustrating when that happens. That said, this was the reason I had expected you to go with initially. But the real question is how likely is it for a warlock to lose concentration twice before his next short rest. That's going to depend mostly on how many attacks he's facing, whether he has any AC boosts or Concentration save boosts. I'll ignore the last two parameters and set the warlocks AC at about 15 for this walkthrough (a reasonably moderate AC). Each attack will have about a 60% chance to hit you. Each hit will have about a 65% chance of maintaining concentration. This means each attack you face has a 0.6*0.35 = 21% chance of causing you to lose concentration. We could use that probability in a negative binomial distribution to determine how many times we can expect to be attacked before losing concentration twice. Without actually performing the calculation - the point is that we can expect to take a significant number of attacks before we would expect to lose than concentration. In terms of total damage caused hellish rebuke tends to stay competitive with hex for most of the game (primarily due to scaling warlock slots). If you were really prone to losing concentration I'd recommend hellish rebuke over hex. That said, hellish rebuke does have a bit of a targeting problem as you can't be sure you'll get to hit the target you want with it. [/QUOTE]

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