College Football Bracketology

[drothgery]

Since this site is at least nominally about a fantasy game, I'd like to take a minor detour into an alternate reality in which division I-A college football is like every other college team sport. Which is to say that there are playoffs, and we spend the last few weeks before the end of the season speculating on who's in, who's out, how seedings will play out, and who will win the whole thing. If the sports fans here think this is interesting enough, I'll post an updated version after this week's games, and next week's, and then let ENWorlders hypothetically run the NCAA Football Tournament...

* * * *

The rules for my mock playoffs are pretty simple. The 11 conference champions, and five at-large teams qualify. For simplicity, I've chosen the at-large teams from the top 5 teams in the BCS rankings that aren't projected to win their conference (or didn't; six conference champions have already been decided at this point), then sorted them into an East and West region.

Our hypothetical first round games are played at campus sites (the higher seed is the home team). Later rounds are played at bowl game sites. I've added the Holiday, Houston, and Capital One bowls into the mix for geographic convenience, and of course the initial championship game is played at the Rose Bowl.

* * * *

The participants:

Confrence Champions (*projected)

USC (Pac 10, BCS #1)
Oklahoma (Big 12, BCS #2)* [1]
Auburn (SEC, BCS #3)* [2]
Utah (MWC, BCS #6)
Boise St (WAC, BCS #7)
Miami (ACC, BCS #9)* [3]
Louisville (CUSA, BCS #10)
Michigan (Big 10, BCS #12)
Boston College (Big East, BCS #21) [4]
Northern Illinois (MAC, unranked) [5]
Noth Texas (Sun Belt, unranked)

[1] Iowa State or Colarado could win the Big 12 Championship game v. Oklahoma
[2] Tennessee could win the SEC Championship game v. Auburn
[3] If Miami beats Virginia Tech in two weeks, they win the ACC. If Virginia Tech beats Virginia AND Miami, they win the ACC. If Virginia beats Virginia Tech AND Virginia Tech beats Miami, then there's a four-way tie among Virginia, Miami, Virginia Tech, and Florida State; the team with the highest BCS ranking (probably Virginia) wins the ACC in that case.
[4] If BC beats Syracuse, they win the Big East. If Syracuse wins AND West Virginia beats Pitt, then West Virginia wins the Big East. If Syracuse beats BC AND Pitt beats West Virginia, then there's a four-way tie among BC, Pitt, Syracuse, and West Virginia; the highest-ranked team (probably West Virginia) represents the Big East in that case.
[5] Either Toledo or Northern Illinois will play Miami (Ohio) in the MAC championship game. Bowling Green is the highest-ranked MAC team in the BCS, but can't win the MAC, as they lost to Northern Illinois and so can't win their division in the case of a tie, and can't do better than tie by beating Toledo this week. Toledo beat Northern Illinois, and so would win a tiebreaker if they beat Bowling Green.

At large teams

Cal (BCS #4)
Texas (BCS #5)
Georgia (BCS #8)
Iowa (BCS #11)
LSU (BCS #13)

Next 5

Virginia Tech (BCS #14)
Tennessee (BCS #15)
Arizona State (BCS #16)
Virginia (BCS #17)
Florida State (BCS #18)

Teams the BCS computers think are seriously underrated: Arizona State, Texas A&M
Teams the BCS computers think are seriously overrated: Georgia, Louisville

* * * *

"Playoff" Seeding

East
1 Oklahoma (Big 12, BCS #2)
2 Auburn (SEC, BCS #3)
3 Texas (at large, BCS #5)
4 Georgia (at large, BCS #8)
5 Miami (ACC, BCS #9)
6 Louisville (CUSA, BCS #10)
7 Boston College (Big East, BCS #21)
8 Northern Illinois (MAC, unranked)

West
1 USC (Pac 10 champ)
2 Cal (at large #1)
3 Utah (MWC, BCS #6)
4 Boise St (WAC, BCS #7)
5 Iowa (at large, BCS #11)
6 Michigan (Big 10, BCS #12)
7 LSU (at large, BCS #13)
8 Noth Texas (Sun Belt, unranked)

Round 1 games (Dec 11, at campus sites)

East
Game A - #8 Northern Illinois at #1 Oklahoma
Game B - #5 Miami at #4 Georgia

Game C - #7 Boston College at #2 Auburn
Game D - #6 Louisville at #3 Texas

West
Game A - #8 North Texas at #1 USC
Game B - #5 Iowa at #4 Boise St

Game C - #7 LSU at #2 Cal
Game D - #6 Michigan at #3 Utah

 

[Crothian]

How did you determine east verse west? I think teams from the same conference need to all be in the same side. Title games should have temas from two different conferneces.

Otherwise interesting.....

 

[drothgery]

How did you determine east verse west? I think teams from the same conference need to all be in the same side. Title games should have temas from two different conferneces.

Teams that play in the Hawaii, Pacific, or Mountain time zone must be in the West. That's USC, Cal, Utah, and Boise St.

Teams that play in East coast states must be in the East. That's Miami, Georgia, and BC.

Teams that play in the Eastern time zone but aren't on the East coast should be in the east (the only exception to this was moving Michigan out West, but I thought sending Michigan East and Northern Illinois to the West imbalanced the brackets). Following this rule strictly would add L'ville and Michigan to the "Must be in the East" pool, and probably should, as the side effects aren't as bad as I thought when I put this together.

You can't play someone from your own conference in the first round, and if possible intraconfrences games will be delayed to no earlier than the regional finals. And I wanted to keep two of the top four in each region. I didn't actually try not to split conferences, or try to split them, but the only one I managed to split in my first try was the SEC; LSU's in the West, and both Auburn and Georgia are in the East.

Revising on the "time zone" point would split Iowa and Michigan, but I think that's a good idea, because I want to delay rematches if possible.

East
1 Oklahoma (Big 12, BCS #2)
2 Auburn (SEC, BCS #3)
3 Texas (at large, BCS #5)
4 Georgia (at large, BCS #8)
5 Miami (ACC, BCS #9)
6 Louisville (CUSA, BCS #10)
7 Michigan (Big 10, BCS #12)
8 Boston College (Big East, BCS #21)

West
1 USC (Pac 10, BCS #1)
2 Cal (at large, BCS #4)
3 Utah (MWC, BCS #6)
4 Boise St (WAC, BCS #7)
5 Iowa (at large, BCS #11)
6 LSU (at large, BCS #13)
7 Northern Illinois (MAC, unranked)
8 Noth Texas (Sun Belt, unranked)

 

[fett527]

Looks like fun!

Toledo beat BG so they will play Northern Illinois for the MAC. I haven't sen NI play but I 've seen Toledo a couple times and they look great. May need to change that MAC projection.

 

[drothgery]

Looks like fun!

Toledo beat BG so they will play Northern Illinois for the MAC. I haven't sen NI play but I 've seen Toledo a couple times and they look great. May need to change that MAC projection.

There's no "may" about it. Toledo's playing Miami (Ohio) for the MAC title. This causes problems with my quest to keep all Eastern time zone teams in the East (as I've now got BCS 4, 5, 6, and 7 in the West), but I think we can still do it. It would be much easier if the pollsters agreed with the computers about Arizona State and Georgia's relative merits.

Today's reshuffle...

East
1 Oklahoma (Big 12, BCS #2)
2 Auburn (SEC, BCS #3)
3 Georgia (at large, BCS #8)
4 Miami (ACC, BCS #9)
5 Louisville (CUSA, BCS #10)
6 Michigan (Big 10, BCS #12)
7 Boston College (Big East, BCS #21)
8 Miami (Ohio)/Toledo (MAC, unranked)

West
1 USC (Pac 10, BCS #1)
2 Cal (at large, BCS #4)
3 Texas (at large, BCS #5)
4 Utah (MWC, BCS #6)
5 Boise St (WAC, BCS #7)
6 Iowa (at large, BCS #11)
7 LSU (at large, BCS #13)
8 Noth Texas (Sun Belt, unranked)

 

[drothgery]

Quick commentary on what's happened so far today and earlier this week ...

Big East - the title is up to the pollsters, with a four-way tie among West Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse, and BC. I expect Pitt to be on top, but there's no real way to know.

Big 12 - it's Colorado vs. Oklahoma for all the marbles, and Texas has only itself to blame for this.

ACC - Virginia failed to make the ACC as interesting the Big East, so the Virginia Tech/Miami game decides the Big East, err, ACC title.

I'll update the bracktology when the next BCS standing come out.

 

[drothgery]

Week of 11/26

Revisions

The participants:

Confrence Champions (*projected)

USC (Pac 10, BCS #1)
Oklahoma (Big 12, BCS #2)* [1]
Auburn (SEC, BCS #3)* [2]
Utah (MWC, BCS #6)
Boise St (WAC, BCS #8)
Louisville (CUSA, BCS #9)
Miami (ACC, BCS #10)* [3]
Michigan (Big 10, BCS #14)
Pitt (Big East, BCS #23)* [4]
Miami (Ohio) (MAC, unranked)* [5]
Noth Texas (Sun Belt, unranked)

[1] Oklahoma will play Colarado in the Big 12 Championship game
[2] Auburn will play Tennessee in the SEC Championship game
[3] The Miami/Virginia Tech game is effectively the ACC championship game.
[4] If Pitt loses to South Florida, they could drop enough for Syracuse to win the Big East based on a head-to-head win over Pitt.
[5] Miami (Ohio) will play Toledo in the MAC championship game.

At large teams

Cal (BCS #4)
Texas (BCS #5)
Georgia (BCS #7)
LSU (BCS #11)
Virginia Tech (BCS #12)

Next 5

Iowa (BCS #11)
Tennessee (BCS #15)
Florida State (BCS #16)
Wisconsin (BCS #17)
Virginia (BCS #18)

* * * *

"Playoff" Seeding

East
1 Oklahoma (Big 12, BCS #2)
2 Auburn (SEC, BCS #3)
3 Georgia (at large, BCS #7)
4 Louisville (CUSA, BCS #9)
5 Miami (ACC, BCS #10)
6 Virginia Tech (ACC, BCS #12)
7 Pitt (Big East, BCS #23)
8 Miami (Ohio)/Toledo (MAC, unranked)

West
1 USC (Pac 10, BCS #1)
2 Cal (at large, BCS #4)
3 Texas (at large, BCS #5)
4 Utah (MWC, BCS #6)
5 Boise St (WAC, BCS #8)
6 LSU (at large, BCS #12)
7 Michigan (Big 10, BCS #14)
8 Noth Texas (Sun Belt, unranked)

Round 1 games (Dec 11, at campus sites)

East
Game A - #8 Miami (Ohio) at #1 Oklahoma
Game B - #5 Miami at #4 Louisville

Game C - #7 Pitt at #2 Auburn
Game D - #6 Virginia Tech at #3 Georgia

West
Game A - #8 North Texas at #1 USC
Game B - #5 Boise St at #4 Utah

Game C - #7 Michigan at #2 Cal
Game D - #6 LSU at #3 Texas

Commentary

A lot of possibilities were eliminated this week, and only the Big East became more confusing; the ACC could have, but didn't. However, the current set of teams doesn't make a nice East/West split; there are two central time zone teams that have to be slotted in the East due to the 1-2-3-4 rule, and there are two East teams among the at-large teams.

Minor changes that could happen:

It's likely that several teams will pass Boise State in the BCS rankings, which could change seeding. BCS spots 7-15 are very fluid at this time, and shifts there could move teams up or down a seed. It's possible that Syracuse could win the Big East; they'd be seeded below the MAC champ.

Major changes that could happen: If there are no other upsets, the loser of the Miami/VT game should drop below Iowa in the BCS rankings, and I won't have to keep an Eastern time zone team in the West. The winner should move above Louisville in the BCS rankings. The current bracket breaks the "time zone rule", because I give the "1-2-3-4" rule precedence, but the final bracket should not.

An upset in the SEC title game, an upset the Big 12 title game, and/or a loss by USC (to UCLA) could have far-ranging impact, as the (currently higher-ranked) losers could gain at-large spots, but it's anyone's guess how the rankings would play out. Also, Colorado would need to be placed in the West by the "time zone rule", and Tennessee would need to be placed in the East; Auburn and Oklahoma are both Central time zone teams that can be shifted if the 1-2-3-4 rule doesn't apply to them. If both Oklahoma and Auburn lose, BCS #1 USC would play (likely) BCS #2 Cal in the West final, rather than the championship game, but this happens in basketball all the time, and I don't think it's a major concern.

 

[Crothian]

Ya, upsets and chaos abounds...good work

 

[drothgery]

Week of 12/4

Final Bracket

The participants:

Confrence Champions

USC (Pac 10, BCS #1)
Oklahoma (Big 12, BCS #2)
Auburn (SEC, BCS #3)
Utah (MWC, BCS #6)
Virginia Tech (ACC, BCS #8)
Boise St (WAC, BCS #9)
Louisville (CUSA, BCS #10)
Michigan (Big 10, BCS #13)
Pitt (Big East, BCS #21)
Toledo (MAC, unranked)
Noth Texas (Sun Belt, unranked)

At large teams

Texas (BCS #4)
Cal (BCS #5)
Georgia (BCS #7)
LSU (BCS #11)
Iowa (BCS #12)

Last 5 out

Miami (BCS #14)
Tennessee (BCS #15)
Florida State (BCS #16)
Wisconsin (BCS #17)
Virginia (BCS #18)

* * * *

"Playoff" Seeding

East
1 Oklahoma (Big 12, BCS #2)
2 Auburn (SEC, BCS #3)
3 Georgia (at large, BCS #7)
4 Virginia Tech (ACC, BCS #8)
5 Louisville (CUSA, BCS #10)
6 Michigan (Big 10, BCS #13)
7 Pitt (Big East, BCS #21)
8 Toledo (MAC, unranked)

West
1 USC (Pac 10, BCS #1)
2 Texas (at large, BCS #4)
3 Cal (at large, BCS #5)
4 Utah (MWC, BCS #6)
5 Boise St (WAC, BCS #8)
6 LSU (at large, BCS #11)
7 Iowa (BCS #12)
8 Noth Texas (Sun Belt, unranked)

Round 1 games (Dec 11, at campus sites)

East
Game A - #8 Toledo at #1 Oklahoma
Game B - #5 Louisville at #4 Virginia Tech

Game C - #7 Pitt at #2 Auburn
Game D - #6 Michigan at #3 Georgia

West
Game A - #8 North Texas at #1 USC
Game B - #5 Boise St at #4 Utah

Game C - #7 Iowa at #2 Texas
Game D - #6 LSU at #3 Cal

Commentary

Maintaining a logical East/West split has been the hardest part of building my simulated football bracket, in part because some conferences span geographic lines in an illogical manner, but mostly because too many top teams are in the Eastern time zone for both the 1-2-3-4 rule and the Eastern Time Zone = East rule to work all the time. Fortunately, the VT/Miami loser (Miami) slipped behind Iowa, as I had hoped, in the final rankings.

* * * *

Forecasting

East
Game A - #8 Toledo at #1 Oklahoma
Oklahoma probably takes this one by something like 42-21

Game B - #5 Louisville at #4 Virginia Tech
L'ville in an upset

Game C - #7 Pitt at #2 Auburn
Auburn too good for the Panthers.

Game D - #6 Michigan at #3 Georgia
School up North upsets Bulldogs.

West
Game A - #8 North Texas at #1 USC
Sun Belt champs get to be crushed by USC.

Game B - #5 Boise St at #4 Utah
See Toledo/Oklahoma.

Game C - #7 Iowa at #2 Texas
Texas in a squeeker, mostly because the Longhorns have home field.

Game D - #6 LSU at #3 Cal
Cal; Tigers would have had a shot in Louisiana, but not in SF.

 

[Crothian]

Game C - #7 Iowa at #2 Texas
Texas in a squeeker, mostly because the Longhorns have home field.

Does Iowa have any of their running backs healthy? If so I think they could win this one. The injuries to that postiion has really been amazing.