Reply to thread

Message: <blockquote data-quote="Asisreo" data-source="post: 8228145" data-attributes="member: 7019027">Firstly, DPR isn't a complete metric for how good of a damage dealer a character is. DPR is basically expected value, which is definitely nice to know. However, dispersion measurements are also extremely important and shouldn't be left out of the discussion. I calculated that at level 15 (no feats and assuming a rogue sneaks attacks every turn they hit) that combatants have these measurements. Expected Value/Standard DeviationRogues (twf): 28.61/14.18Monks (w/o flurry): 17.77/9.21Monks (w/ flurry): 23.70/10.63Fighter (SnB): 21.37/10.78Not only is the rogue's standard deviation higher, but they're also 2.5x more likely to not contribute in a round at all. Both the un-flurried monk and SnB fighter has a 6.4% chance to miss while the rogue still has a whopping 16% chance. And while they hit harder when they land a hit:DPR is a measure of the average of numbers across infinite trials. However, what you average over infinite trials doesn't matter because you're not infinitely fighting a single monster that isn't threatening your resources, you're fighting a finite number of trials "rounds" where each prolonged number of trials can cause resource drain. For example, if choosing between an attack that has a 50% chance to kill or an attack that guarantees to kill on round 2, it would be safer to choose the second option in all cases except when your resources cannot sustain lasting for 2 rounds. If you can last for 3 rounds, the first attack sequence gives you a 25% chance to die while the second attack gives you a 0% chance to die. In this scenario, its technically best to try the first attack first then do the second attack option. But if you don't know how long you can last in a fight, option 2 is more appealing because there's lower risk. Higher Deviations are basically a negative unless your characters are on their last legs. While you have a higher chance to kill earlier and save resources, you also have a higher chance to kill later and, worst case scenario, increase the likelihood of a TPK. The big issue is that it doesn't actually matter that you saved the team 10HP or 2 spell slots at the end of the day because they were getting all of that back anyways. What matters is that you could have caused the team to lose an extra 10HP or 2 spell slots which could have brought them to a TPK. Not saying rogues are awful now, they still contribute fine, but they aren't reliable and their higher RNG increases the chances of the party losing important resources and leading to a TPK. TL;DR Rogue's have high "expected value" but they play a riskier game which can swing the game in greater extremes. While rogues seem to be the king of at-will DPR, they're risking alot more than the fighter, monk, or barbarian.</blockquote>

Verification