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<blockquote data-quote="Lord Twig" data-source="post: 8247805" data-attributes="member: 31754">The monk has a 65% chance to hit (60% regular hit and 5% critical hit), and with two attacks that raises the chance to hit at least once to 87.75%. The monk's chance to stun vs. a +5 Con save is 50%, so factoring in that he only has an 87.75% chance to hit that lowers the chance of hitting and successfully stunning to 43.875%. Once you have landed a stun your chance of landing at least one hit out of 4, all with advantage, rise to 98.5%. Which raises the chance of a successful stun, if you try only once that round, to 49.25%.Something to keep in mind with the way odds work. If hit and spend 1 ki to attempt a stun you have a 50% chance. If you fail, then hit again you can spend another 1 ki to get another 50% chance, but for the round you have actually only increased your chance to succeed to 75%, or a gain of 25%. Two 50% chances is = to 75% not 100%. Likewise if you try a third time you increase your odds to 87.5%, or a gain of 12.5%. So every time you spend another ki to stun on the same round you are getting diminishing returns.Now, of course, the same holds true round over round. Your chance to stun at least once over two rounds, trying only once each round, is 75%. But that would be a different calculation if you wanted to figure out your average damage per combat. DPR is damage per round, so that is what I will stick with.All of that said I took some shortcuts in my math and I don't think it is quite as accurate as it could be. I honestly don't know if it will change up or down, but I don't think it will change that much. It is a lot of math though, so it might take me a while to come up with the updated numbers.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Lord Twig, post: 8247805, member: 31754"] The monk has a 65% chance to hit (60% regular hit and 5% critical hit), and with two attacks that raises the chance to hit at least once to 87.75%. The monk's chance to stun vs. a +5 Con save is 50%, so factoring in that he only has an 87.75% chance to hit that lowers the chance of hitting and successfully stunning to 43.875%. Once you have landed a stun your chance of landing at least one hit out of 4, all with advantage, rise to 98.5%. Which raises the chance of a successful stun, if you try only once that round, to 49.25%. Something to keep in mind with the way odds work. If hit and spend 1 ki to attempt a stun you have a 50% chance. If you fail, then hit again you can spend another 1 ki to get another 50% chance, but for the round you have actually only increased your chance to succeed to 75%, or a gain of 25%. Two 50% chances is = to 75% not 100%. Likewise if you try a [I]third[/I] time you increase your odds to 87.5%, or a gain of 12.5%. So every time you spend another ki to stun on the same round you are getting diminishing returns. Now, of course, the same holds true round over round. Your chance to stun at least once over two rounds, trying only once each round, is 75%. But that would be a different calculation if you wanted to figure out your average damage per combat. DPR is damage per round, so that is what I will stick with. All of that said I took some shortcuts in my math and I don't think it is quite as accurate as it could be. I honestly don't know if it will change up or down, but I don't think it will change that much. It is a lot of math though, so it might take me a while to come up with the updated numbers. [/QUOTE]

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