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Could the D20/OGL end up hurting WoTC?
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<blockquote data-quote="mearls" data-source="post: 1948539" data-attributes="member: 697"><p>If WotC really did compete with d20 publishers, it's a two way street. Sales wouldn't only flow from WotC to d20 companies. They'd also go from d20 companies to WotC. Given that WotC is the only company in the industry that can offer full color, hard cover books at an affordable price, there isn't much competition to begin with.</p><p></p><p>On top of that, non-WotC publishers can't really afford to print more than 10,000 or so copies of a book in one go. Even if all those books end up in the hands of people who give up D&D for that new game, they won't put any noticeable dent in the D&D player base.</p><p></p><p>Distribution-wise, WotC blows everyone out of the water. They're in every hobby store, most chain bookstores, and in many bookstores their fiction line allows them to gain better product placement for RPG stuff. For example, I've seen D&D displays at several Barnes and Noble and Borders locations.</p><p></p><p>In terms of advertising and spread, D&D has Dragon and Dungeon every month, plus licensed computer games, novels, and a line of collectible miniatures. The 30th anniversary had coverage in variety of mainstream outlets. Many RPG companies try to counter this by latching on to licenses, but that hasn't shown any signs of creating a consistent, evergreen product or gameline.</p><p></p><p>On top of all this, WotC has far more resources for R&D than any other company in the business. Their designers have far lower word quotas per day, higher pay, and benefits. Their art budget dwarfs everyone else's, and they employ full-time editors and developers to work on books. In terms of QA, they're ahead of everyone else.</p><p></p><p>In essence, it doesn't matter how many d20 products game companies throw out there. Raw numbers aren't enough to pose a threat to any of these factors. On top of all that, the vast majority of d20 stuff shows up only in speciality stores.</p><p></p><p>To draw an analogy, WotC is Barnes and Noble and everyone else is a local bookstore. Barnes and Noble doesn't care if there's 1, 5, or 50 small bookstores in an area, as long as no single one of those bookstores has the resources needed to take on the entire B&N chain. That's all that matters.</p><p></p><p>RPGs aren't a necessity. There isn't a finite pie of money that people have to spend on them. Instead, I believe that the amount of money people spend on them is determined solely by the quality they see available on the market place. They're a pure luxury that people throw their disposable income at. They're like DVDs, or paperbacks. If I want to buy Die Hard and Predator on DVD, but I can only afford Die Hard that day, it's not like I'm never going to buy Predator. I'll eventually get around to it. If I really, really want Predator, I'll be back to pick it up as soon as I have the cash.</p><p></p><p>RPGs are similar - as soon as a gamer can afford the books he really, really wants, he'll buy them. Now, a lot of publishers think what they produce is top notch, great stuff, but if the sales aren't there, it probably isn't as good as it looks. Reviews and Internet chatter don't mean much when it comes to determining if a book has any sort of wide appeal beyond a narrow slice of gamers who may happen to love the subject matter. A book on bird migrations in Greyhawk might get glowing reviews from the 3 people who care enough about the subject to buy it, but the staggering majority of gamers are just going to ignore it. If a book's sales languish, it has less to do with competition than marketing, quality, utility, or relevance.</p><p></p><p>Competition between RPG publishers is pure myth. The only real "competiton" lies in avoiding all the pitfalls that can yield a book that has mediocre or poor sales.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="mearls, post: 1948539, member: 697"] If WotC really did compete with d20 publishers, it's a two way street. Sales wouldn't only flow from WotC to d20 companies. They'd also go from d20 companies to WotC. Given that WotC is the only company in the industry that can offer full color, hard cover books at an affordable price, there isn't much competition to begin with. On top of that, non-WotC publishers can't really afford to print more than 10,000 or so copies of a book in one go. Even if all those books end up in the hands of people who give up D&D for that new game, they won't put any noticeable dent in the D&D player base. Distribution-wise, WotC blows everyone out of the water. They're in every hobby store, most chain bookstores, and in many bookstores their fiction line allows them to gain better product placement for RPG stuff. For example, I've seen D&D displays at several Barnes and Noble and Borders locations. In terms of advertising and spread, D&D has Dragon and Dungeon every month, plus licensed computer games, novels, and a line of collectible miniatures. The 30th anniversary had coverage in variety of mainstream outlets. Many RPG companies try to counter this by latching on to licenses, but that hasn't shown any signs of creating a consistent, evergreen product or gameline. On top of all this, WotC has far more resources for R&D than any other company in the business. Their designers have far lower word quotas per day, higher pay, and benefits. Their art budget dwarfs everyone else's, and they employ full-time editors and developers to work on books. In terms of QA, they're ahead of everyone else. In essence, it doesn't matter how many d20 products game companies throw out there. Raw numbers aren't enough to pose a threat to any of these factors. On top of all that, the vast majority of d20 stuff shows up only in speciality stores. To draw an analogy, WotC is Barnes and Noble and everyone else is a local bookstore. Barnes and Noble doesn't care if there's 1, 5, or 50 small bookstores in an area, as long as no single one of those bookstores has the resources needed to take on the entire B&N chain. That's all that matters. RPGs aren't a necessity. There isn't a finite pie of money that people have to spend on them. Instead, I believe that the amount of money people spend on them is determined solely by the quality they see available on the market place. They're a pure luxury that people throw their disposable income at. They're like DVDs, or paperbacks. If I want to buy Die Hard and Predator on DVD, but I can only afford Die Hard that day, it's not like I'm never going to buy Predator. I'll eventually get around to it. If I really, really want Predator, I'll be back to pick it up as soon as I have the cash. RPGs are similar - as soon as a gamer can afford the books he really, really wants, he'll buy them. Now, a lot of publishers think what they produce is top notch, great stuff, but if the sales aren't there, it probably isn't as good as it looks. Reviews and Internet chatter don't mean much when it comes to determining if a book has any sort of wide appeal beyond a narrow slice of gamers who may happen to love the subject matter. A book on bird migrations in Greyhawk might get glowing reviews from the 3 people who care enough about the subject to buy it, but the staggering majority of gamers are just going to ignore it. If a book's sales languish, it has less to do with competition than marketing, quality, utility, or relevance. Competition between RPG publishers is pure myth. The only real "competiton" lies in avoiding all the pitfalls that can yield a book that has mediocre or poor sales. [/QUOTE]
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