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Could the D20/OGL end up hurting WoTC?
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<blockquote data-quote="MerricB" data-source="post: 1949525" data-attributes="member: 3586"><p>However, that argument only holds if you assume that the d20 companies have not <em>increased</em> the number of people buying D&D books.</p><p></p><p>If some people are dissatisified with the books that Wizards are putting out (and I see quite a few of them on ENworld), they may go to the d20 books that do a better job of catering to them. It is quite possible that this option keeps some of them in role-playing at all - in the past, a player not having a substitute might leave the game altogether. Based on comments on ENworld and my own observations, I believe that this was indeed the case during the period before 3E was released.</p><p></p><p>The d20 publishers actually form a safety net for Wizards - if Wizards books decline in quality, the d20 publishers benefit, but the D&D hobby does not lose some of these people altogether.</p><p></p><p>Indeed, with the retention of players improved, then the recruiting of new players becomes something that grows the player base, rather than merely slowing the rate of decline. And with more people playing, the more opportunities for new players to join in due to the increased exposure of the game. That's the heart of the Skaff Effect.</p><p></p><p>The figures I've heard suggest that the ongoing sales of D&D core books dropped by about 50% on the release of 2nd edition, and that D&D has now regained the ongoing sales it had during the 1st edition period, if not surpassing them.</p><p></p><p>If the d20 publishers cause the Wizards profits to be 10% lower than they would be without them, but they prevent that 50% drop in sales... then they would definitely be worth it to Wizards. It is possible that the d20 publishers don't actually stop sales dropping, and they still take away some portion of Wizards sales, but it isn't something we can measure.</p><p></p><p>Cheers!</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="MerricB, post: 1949525, member: 3586"] However, that argument only holds if you assume that the d20 companies have not [i]increased[/i] the number of people buying D&D books. If some people are dissatisified with the books that Wizards are putting out (and I see quite a few of them on ENworld), they may go to the d20 books that do a better job of catering to them. It is quite possible that this option keeps some of them in role-playing at all - in the past, a player not having a substitute might leave the game altogether. Based on comments on ENworld and my own observations, I believe that this was indeed the case during the period before 3E was released. The d20 publishers actually form a safety net for Wizards - if Wizards books decline in quality, the d20 publishers benefit, but the D&D hobby does not lose some of these people altogether. Indeed, with the retention of players improved, then the recruiting of new players becomes something that grows the player base, rather than merely slowing the rate of decline. And with more people playing, the more opportunities for new players to join in due to the increased exposure of the game. That's the heart of the Skaff Effect. The figures I've heard suggest that the ongoing sales of D&D core books dropped by about 50% on the release of 2nd edition, and that D&D has now regained the ongoing sales it had during the 1st edition period, if not surpassing them. If the d20 publishers cause the Wizards profits to be 10% lower than they would be without them, but they prevent that 50% drop in sales... then they would definitely be worth it to Wizards. It is possible that the d20 publishers don't actually stop sales dropping, and they still take away some portion of Wizards sales, but it isn't something we can measure. Cheers! [/QUOTE]
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