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D&D 4th Edition Next Year?
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<blockquote data-quote="Rasyr" data-source="post: 2574890" data-attributes="member: 2855"><p>Bravo!!!</p><p></p><p>3.5 was planned for 2005, but came out in 2003 because Hasbro decided that sales had slumped dramatically. Remember, 3.5 was announced the November be it was released (GenCon release), so there was less than a year's notice for its release. D&D basically went from a planned 5 year cycle to a 3 year cycle. </p><p></p><p>That leaves some important questions though.The first is: Was that cycle change a one time event or a permanent change? If it was a permanent change, then we can expect 4E sometime next year (or maybe 2007, at the latest).</p><p></p><p>If it was a one time event, did it reset the development clock (i.e. Did the 5 year cycle restart when 3.5 was released, or did it just add 2 years to the next cycle). If it reset, then expect 4E around 2008, if it just gave 4e development 2 extra years, then expect it around 2010 (this is what I, personally am hoping, not expecting, just hoping).</p><p></p><p>Now before anybody chimes in and says that Charles Ryan promised 1-2 years notice, I would like to point out that he did not actually promise anything. He said something to the effect that he wants to give 1-2 years notice. However, there are a number of factors which may prevent him from doing so.</p><p></p><p>Number 1 on that list is that too much notice and he will be effectively killing 3.5 sales. Once announced, distributors will stop ordering (at least in bulk), and word will spread to retailers, and they will stop ordering, thus pretty much ensuring that D&D3.5 effectively dies.</p><p></p><p>Number 2 is that he works for Hasbro, and may be constrained from making such an announcement by his bosses (this being a breach that he could be fired for).</p><p></p><p>Number 3 depends upon which of the scenerios listed above is actually in place for the development cycle. If the cycle is long, and sales decrease past a certain point, Hasbro will most certainly come down and say "Sales are down, do another revision to get them back up", which is what I think happened with the 3.5 release.</p><p></p><p>There could, obviously, be other reasons as well, but I think that the above are hte most relevant.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Just a few thoughts.......</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Rasyr, post: 2574890, member: 2855"] Bravo!!! 3.5 was planned for 2005, but came out in 2003 because Hasbro decided that sales had slumped dramatically. Remember, 3.5 was announced the November be it was released (GenCon release), so there was less than a year's notice for its release. D&D basically went from a planned 5 year cycle to a 3 year cycle. That leaves some important questions though.The first is: Was that cycle change a one time event or a permanent change? If it was a permanent change, then we can expect 4E sometime next year (or maybe 2007, at the latest). If it was a one time event, did it reset the development clock (i.e. Did the 5 year cycle restart when 3.5 was released, or did it just add 2 years to the next cycle). If it reset, then expect 4E around 2008, if it just gave 4e development 2 extra years, then expect it around 2010 (this is what I, personally am hoping, not expecting, just hoping). Now before anybody chimes in and says that Charles Ryan promised 1-2 years notice, I would like to point out that he did not actually promise anything. He said something to the effect that he wants to give 1-2 years notice. However, there are a number of factors which may prevent him from doing so. Number 1 on that list is that too much notice and he will be effectively killing 3.5 sales. Once announced, distributors will stop ordering (at least in bulk), and word will spread to retailers, and they will stop ordering, thus pretty much ensuring that D&D3.5 effectively dies. Number 2 is that he works for Hasbro, and may be constrained from making such an announcement by his bosses (this being a breach that he could be fired for). Number 3 depends upon which of the scenerios listed above is actually in place for the development cycle. If the cycle is long, and sales decrease past a certain point, Hasbro will most certainly come down and say "Sales are down, do another revision to get them back up", which is what I think happened with the 3.5 release. There could, obviously, be other reasons as well, but I think that the above are hte most relevant. Just a few thoughts....... [/QUOTE]
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