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Message: <blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7939677" data-attributes="member: 72555">So, every dead person means about 1000 (give or take) people infected in the community.  This is because when they die, they where infected 3 weeks ago typically, and on the order of 1% of people with functioning modern health care systems die from this.  So there where roughly 100 people who where infected at around the same time and didn't die.  Those 100 people each passed it on to 2 people, who passed it on to 2 people, and etc -- they have spread it to the 1000 people by the time the first person is dead.This is a useful tool because if you aren't saturation testing everyone (only Italy, SK, Taiwan, Japan, and China - maybe UK and Canada - are coming close to this as far as I can tell), you don't catch the community-passed minor cases that look like the flu.Second, few metro areas have capacity to handle 1000 people with serious symptoms from this.  So at around 10,000 cases in a region, the health care system breaks down, and they start having to triage care.  Fatality rates when there is a functioning health care system are < 1%; when they cannot treat it with modern tech, > 4%.This means that at 10 deaths in an area (that aren't people brought in in already in quarantine from far away), you have about 10,000 ill (give or take), and in 3 weeks about 100-400 (give or take) will be dying if you immediately did a lockdown.Every week the number of infected double in the wild.  And at some point it breaks the carrying capacity of your hospitals, like it did in Wuhan or Italy.  Then death rates go from < 1% to > 4%.The delay between impact at hospitals and massive community measures to stop spread is almost 3 weeks.  In those 3 weeks outbreaks get 10-30 times worse.  So to keep it from being a disaster, you have to hit the panic button long before your hospitals are in trouble, because most of the iceberg is under the water.This is fine.</blockquote>

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