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D&D and the rising pandemic
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<blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7939817" data-attributes="member: 72555"><p>It is increasing exponentially <strong>everywhere</strong>, except Italy, SK, China, Taiwan and maybe Japan at this point.</p><p></p><p>If we assume 6% fatality rate if untreated by ICU, infected doubles every week if uncontrolled by travel/contact restrictions, and 1% death rate if treated by ICU.</p><p></p><p>UK's death count is 6, diagnosed is 453. So 6*800 is about 4800 actual cases. You have 10% coverage of the sick; of everyone with Covid 19, roughly 1 in 10 has been tested and found to have it.</p><p></p><p>UK has 4000 intensive care and a step down from it beds. On the order of 10%-20% of patients need it. Your utilization is probably north of 80% on those beds right now.</p><p></p><p>So if you introduced a lock down <strong>today</strong>, your intensive care bed supply would be stretched to its limit but not break. Probably 10,000 total cases, 100 dead (1% death rate) over 3-5 weeks.</p><p></p><p>Wait a week. 20,000 total cases. Half of those who need intensive care just die because you don't have the equipment. 100 + 600 = 700 dead.</p><p></p><p>Wait a week. 40,000 total cases. 3/4 of those who need intensive care just die because you don't have the equipment. 100 + 1800 = 1900 dead.</p><p></p><p>Wait a week. 80,000 total cases. 4300 dead.</p><p></p><p>Never do lock down, just let the virus burn itself out. 66 million people in UK. 1/4 get infected within 5 months. 6% death rate among infected because hospitals can do nothing, they don't have the equipment to handle it. 1 million dead.</p><p></p><p>On the plus side, France and Spain are a few weeks ahead of you along this track. I suspect even Boris will do something eventually.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="NotAYakk, post: 7939817, member: 72555"] It is increasing exponentially [b]everywhere[/b], except Italy, SK, China, Taiwan and maybe Japan at this point. If we assume 6% fatality rate if untreated by ICU, infected doubles every week if uncontrolled by travel/contact restrictions, and 1% death rate if treated by ICU. UK's death count is 6, diagnosed is 453. So 6*800 is about 4800 actual cases. You have 10% coverage of the sick; of everyone with Covid 19, roughly 1 in 10 has been tested and found to have it. UK has 4000 intensive care and a step down from it beds. On the order of 10%-20% of patients need it. Your utilization is probably north of 80% on those beds right now. So if you introduced a lock down [b]today[/b], your intensive care bed supply would be stretched to its limit but not break. Probably 10,000 total cases, 100 dead (1% death rate) over 3-5 weeks. Wait a week. 20,000 total cases. Half of those who need intensive care just die because you don't have the equipment. 100 + 600 = 700 dead. Wait a week. 40,000 total cases. 3/4 of those who need intensive care just die because you don't have the equipment. 100 + 1800 = 1900 dead. Wait a week. 80,000 total cases. 4300 dead. Never do lock down, just let the virus burn itself out. 66 million people in UK. 1/4 get infected within 5 months. 6% death rate among infected because hospitals can do nothing, they don't have the equipment to handle it. 1 million dead. On the plus side, France and Spain are a few weeks ahead of you along this track. I suspect even Boris will do something eventually. [/QUOTE]
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