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<blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7940786" data-attributes="member: 72555"><p>So, for a fun clock. The end point is "you have 10,000 cases in your community in the wild", assuming no measures as extreme as Italy (local travel bans, social distancing).</p><p></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">First community transmission detected because someone went to the hospital feeling unwell: 32 days</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">First community-infected death: 16 days</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">10th community-infected death: 0 days, roughly 10,000 people in community infected</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">100th death: -16 days, roughly 100,000 people in community infected</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 500 new free ICU, 1500 Oxygen beds: -20 days</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 1000 new free ICU, 3000 Oxygen beds: -26 days (total 1500)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 2000 new free ICU, 6000 Oxygen beds: -32 days (total 3500) about 1 million infected</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 4000 new free ICU, 12000 Oxygen beds: -38 days (total 7500)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 8000 new free ICU, 24000 Oxygen beds: -44 days (total 15000; first few patients are now stable)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">It is everywhere. -48 days</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 16000 new free ICU, 48000 Oxygen beds: -50 days (total 30000)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">ICU need reaches steady state, way over supply. -68 days</li> </ul><p></p><p>USA as a whole has 65,000 ICU beds, or 1 per 5000 people. They tend to be in 80%+ utilization, so you have 1 "free" ICU bed for every 25,000 people. So, in a region of 25 million people, you might about 1000 beds they can free up at this moment. It is probable they can cobble a few more together by turning surgical equipment into ICU beds or similar.</p><p></p><p>When you introduce drastic measures, the number of new beds needed levels off <strong>3 weeks later</strong>. Patients needing beds need them for up to 4 weeks.</p><p></p><p>This kind of curve hasn't been flattened without drastic measures.</p><p></p><p>Patients who need ICU/Oxygen basically die if they don't get it. Some that need it die anyway. You get a <1% death rate if you have enough ICU/Oxygen/etc. You get a 4%+ death rate if you don't.</p><p></p><p>So suppose modest measures are taken at the 10,000 people infected mark.</p><p></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">First community transmission detected because someone went to the hospital feeling unwell: 32 days</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">First community-infected death: 16 days</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">10th community-infected death: 0 days, roughly 10,000 people in community infected</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">100th death: -16 days, roughly 20,000 people in community infected</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 500 new free ICU, 1500 Oxygen beds: -20 days</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 650 new free ICU, 2000 Oxygen beds: -26 days (total 1150)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 850 new free ICU, 2500 Oxygen beds: -32 days (total 2000)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">40,000 people infected: -32 days</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 1100 new free ICU, 3300 Oxygen beds: -38 days (total 3100)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 1400 new free ICU, 4300 Oxygen beds: -44 days (total 4000; first few patients are now stable)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">80,000 people infected: -48 days</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 1800 new free ICU, 5500 Oxygen beds: -50 days (total 5150)</li> </ul><p></p><p>Suppose drastic measures are taken at the 10,000 people mark.</p><p></p><p>So suppose modest measures are taken at the 10,000 people infected mark.</p><p></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">First community transmission detected because someone went to the hospital feeling unwell: 32 days</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">First community-infected death: 16 days</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">10th community-infected death: 0 days, roughly 10,000 people in community infected</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">100th death: -16 days, roughly 20,000 people in community infected</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 500 new free ICU, 1500 Oxygen beds: -20 days</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 450 new free ICU, 1350 Oxygen beds: -26 days (total 950)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 400 new free ICU, 1200 Oxygen beds: -32 days (total 1350)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">12,000 people infected: -32 days</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 350 new free ICU, 1000 Oxygen beds: -38 days (total 1700)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 300 new free ICU, 900 Oxygen beds: -44 days (total 1500; first few patients are now stable)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">7,000 people infected: -48 days</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You need 250 new free ICU, 750 Oxygen beds: -50 days (total 1200)</li> </ul><p></p><p>A downslope starts. But it starts ~10-20 days after measures start, because the people in hospital are the people infected 2-3 weeks ago.</p><p></p><p>Model: 5% of sick need a ICU in 20 days, 15% need oxygen, and they need it for 4 weeks. Base is 10x new cases every 16 days. Modest intervention makes it 2x new cases every 16 days. Serious intervention makes it x0.7 new cases every 16 days.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="NotAYakk, post: 7940786, member: 72555"] So, for a fun clock. The end point is "you have 10,000 cases in your community in the wild", assuming no measures as extreme as Italy (local travel bans, social distancing). [LIST] [*]First community transmission detected because someone went to the hospital feeling unwell: 32 days [*]First community-infected death: 16 days [*]10th community-infected death: 0 days, roughly 10,000 people in community infected [*]100th death: -16 days, roughly 100,000 people in community infected [*]You need 500 new free ICU, 1500 Oxygen beds: -20 days [*]You need 1000 new free ICU, 3000 Oxygen beds: -26 days (total 1500) [*]You need 2000 new free ICU, 6000 Oxygen beds: -32 days (total 3500) about 1 million infected [*]You need 4000 new free ICU, 12000 Oxygen beds: -38 days (total 7500) [*]You need 8000 new free ICU, 24000 Oxygen beds: -44 days (total 15000; first few patients are now stable) [*]It is everywhere. -48 days [*]You need 16000 new free ICU, 48000 Oxygen beds: -50 days (total 30000) [*]ICU need reaches steady state, way over supply. -68 days [/LIST] USA as a whole has 65,000 ICU beds, or 1 per 5000 people. They tend to be in 80%+ utilization, so you have 1 "free" ICU bed for every 25,000 people. So, in a region of 25 million people, you might about 1000 beds they can free up at this moment. It is probable they can cobble a few more together by turning surgical equipment into ICU beds or similar. When you introduce drastic measures, the number of new beds needed levels off [B]3 weeks later[/B]. Patients needing beds need them for up to 4 weeks. This kind of curve hasn't been flattened without drastic measures. Patients who need ICU/Oxygen basically die if they don't get it. Some that need it die anyway. You get a <1% death rate if you have enough ICU/Oxygen/etc. You get a 4%+ death rate if you don't. So suppose modest measures are taken at the 10,000 people infected mark. [LIST] [*]First community transmission detected because someone went to the hospital feeling unwell: 32 days [*]First community-infected death: 16 days [*]10th community-infected death: 0 days, roughly 10,000 people in community infected [*]100th death: -16 days, roughly 20,000 people in community infected [*]You need 500 new free ICU, 1500 Oxygen beds: -20 days [*]You need 650 new free ICU, 2000 Oxygen beds: -26 days (total 1150) [*]You need 850 new free ICU, 2500 Oxygen beds: -32 days (total 2000) [*]40,000 people infected: -32 days [*]You need 1100 new free ICU, 3300 Oxygen beds: -38 days (total 3100) [*]You need 1400 new free ICU, 4300 Oxygen beds: -44 days (total 4000; first few patients are now stable) [*]80,000 people infected: -48 days [*]You need 1800 new free ICU, 5500 Oxygen beds: -50 days (total 5150) [/LIST] Suppose drastic measures are taken at the 10,000 people mark. So suppose modest measures are taken at the 10,000 people infected mark. [LIST] [*]First community transmission detected because someone went to the hospital feeling unwell: 32 days [*]First community-infected death: 16 days [*]10th community-infected death: 0 days, roughly 10,000 people in community infected [*]100th death: -16 days, roughly 20,000 people in community infected [*]You need 500 new free ICU, 1500 Oxygen beds: -20 days [*]You need 450 new free ICU, 1350 Oxygen beds: -26 days (total 950) [*]You need 400 new free ICU, 1200 Oxygen beds: -32 days (total 1350) [*]12,000 people infected: -32 days [*]You need 350 new free ICU, 1000 Oxygen beds: -38 days (total 1700) [*]You need 300 new free ICU, 900 Oxygen beds: -44 days (total 1500; first few patients are now stable) [*]7,000 people infected: -48 days [*]You need 250 new free ICU, 750 Oxygen beds: -50 days (total 1200) [/LIST] A downslope starts. But it starts ~10-20 days after measures start, because the people in hospital are the people infected 2-3 weeks ago. Model: 5% of sick need a ICU in 20 days, 15% need oxygen, and they need it for 4 weeks. Base is 10x new cases every 16 days. Modest intervention makes it 2x new cases every 16 days. Serious intervention makes it x0.7 new cases every 16 days. [/QUOTE]
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