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Message: <blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7942548" data-attributes="member: 72555">Oh thank god.  The rate of new cases going up is going down.  I mean, the second derivative isn't positive, which is good.Still awful.  It is great news for the parts of the world that hit the panic button a bit earlier, it gives hope that they won't suffer what you have.I am so very sorry for what is happening in Northern Italy.  <3  Stay strong.[MEDIA=youtube]_KeXsIMouv0[/MEDIA]I mean, if you are going to disagree with someone's considered and backed opinion, you could actually say more than "no you are wrong".  But I guess that is work.Anyhow, if you want to see math on why a "lower the curve" that ends with 30%-70% of the US population having been infected and recovered, and hence immune, needing to take about 10 years:About ~5% of cases need respirator care.  The USA has 30,000 respirators that aren't used to save people's lives every second.  30,000/5% is 600,000 -- if you have more than 600,000 active cases at once, you run out of respirators.  People need those respirators up to 6 weeks -- we'll be generous and say 3 weeks.  So no more than 20,000 people per day can get sick with this, or you run out of respirators.  The population of the USA is 300,000,000.  Divide 300,000,000 by 20,000 and you get 15000 days.  Or, in other words, 41.1 years.10 years is an order of magnitude estimate.  It seems reasonable.  I mean, we can assume 30% infection instead of 100%, and that there are 30% more respirators.  That gets it down to 10 years to "flatten the curve" below health care capacity.And again, you can choose not to have enough respirators.  It is pretty clear that people who "need" them and don't get them mostly just die.  So you go from ~1% to 5%+ fatality rate, as demonstrated by every region that has overloaded their health care system's death rates.Now you could build more respirators.  If you had about 1 million respirators (15x as many as the entire USA has right now), you could afford to have 20 million every 3 weeks, or about 1 million new sick people per day.  Then if you spread the infection over 1 year.  So that is another solution.  Delay the epidemic, start mass producing respirators.  To clear the epidemic in 2 years, worldwide, you need 7 billion / 365 days * 21 days / 20, or about 21 million respirators.Oh, and you also need doctors who are experts in using them, or at least technicians trained in it.  So maybe more than a year, people don't learn that fast.  And you have a ramp up time as you mass produce them.It does look like a good plan.  I hope someone is mass producing them.  Maybe Germany or China is.</blockquote>

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