Upgrade your account to a Community Supporter account and remove most of the site ads.

Reply to thread

Message: <blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7942551" data-attributes="member: 72555">SK has more cases per capita right now than the USA has.  By a large factor.Their epidemic is worse, it is more widespread.They are still clamping down on it and reducing its growth rate.You can give up and let millions die, or you can do something challenging.  It isn't too late for the USA to stop it.You just need to get R0 as close to 1.0 as you can, ideally under 1.0, and then start aggressive testing and contact tracking to make it even lower.  Get R0 down to 0.5 and exponential growth works for you.This isn't Polio or Measles with an R0 close to 10; it has an R0 of 2.something.  It can be beaten without a vaccine.  I can provide quotes by epidemiologists if you want, but they basically say "this can be beaten without a vaccine".It doesn't appear to be very infections pre-symptoms.  So if you keep social distancing going and start testing everyone with a flu, and get people to self isolate at the first flu symptom, you can get R0 well below 1.At R0 of 0.5, a 20,000 person per day epidemic (way worse than the USA has right now, at the limit of your health care system: basically, where Italy is right now) dies in 14 reproduction cycles (around 6 days) -- 12ish weeks.Then you just have to start defending against reintroduction.This isn't "flattening the curve".  "Flattening the curve" is accepting that everyone will get sick, and trying to get them to get sick slower to reduce mortality.  This is using social distancing to buy time to eliminate the epidemic via tracking and containment.</blockquote>

Verification