Menu
News
All News
Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
Pathfinder
Starfinder
Warhammer
2d20 System
Year Zero Engine
Industry News
Reviews
Dragon Reflections
Columns
Weekly Digests
Weekly News Digest
Freebies, Sales & Bundles
RPG Print News
RPG Crowdfunding News
Game Content
ENterplanetary DimENsions
Mythological Figures
Opinion
Worlds of Design
Peregrine's Next
RPG Evolution
Other Columns
From the Freelancing Frontline
Monster ENcyclopedia
WotC/TSR Alumni Look Back
4 Hours w/RSD (Ryan Dancey)
The Road to 3E (Jonathan Tweet)
Greenwood's Realms (Ed Greenwood)
Drawmij's TSR (Jim Ward)
Community
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Resources
Wiki
Pages
Latest activity
Media
New media
New comments
Search media
Downloads
Latest reviews
Search resources
EN Publishing
Store
EN5ider
Adventures in ZEITGEIST
Awfully Cheerful Engine
What's OLD is NEW
Judge Dredd & The Worlds Of 2000AD
War of the Burning Sky
Level Up: Advanced 5E
Events & Releases
Upcoming Events
Private Events
Featured Events
Socials!
Twitch
YouTube
Facebook (EN Publishing)
Facebook (EN World)
Twitter
Instagram
TikTok
Podcast
Features
Top 5 RPGs Compiled Charts 2004-Present
Adventure Game Industry Market Research Summary (RPGs) V1.0
Ryan Dancey: Acquiring TSR
Q&A With Gary Gygax
D&D Rules FAQs
TSR, WotC, & Paizo: A Comparative History
D&D Pronunciation Guide
Million Dollar TTRPG Kickstarters
Tabletop RPG Podcast Hall of Fame
Eric Noah's Unofficial D&D 3rd Edition News
D&D in the Mainstream
D&D & RPG History
About Morrus
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
The
VOIDRUNNER'S CODEX
is LIVE! Explore new worlds, fight oppressive empires, fend off fearsome aliens, and wield deadly psionics with this comprehensive boxed set expansion for 5E and A5E!
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*Geek Talk & Media
D&D and the rising pandemic
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Celebrim" data-source="post: 7942653" data-attributes="member: 4937"><p>Right. But again, SK's extensive testing proves that can't be what is happening, however hopeful and reassuring it might be to believe that is what is happening. Likewise, the size of outbreaks can be predicted to within constraints that, while those constraints may seem large (often give or take an order of magnitude), nonetheless do constrain the base number greatly because very small changes in the base number yield massive changes in the outcome of exponential functions over time.</p><p></p><p>Underlying math here:</p><p></p><p>[MEDIA=youtube]Kas0tIxDvrg:1[/MEDIA]</p><p></p><p>EDIT: One other thing I should have said is that the reverse of your argument is possible as well. People who make the argument you are making here tend to assume rather unreasonably that we have accurately documented the deaths, but not accurately documented the cases. And while that might seem reasonable, it's not really true except in cases when you are testing extensively. In the US for example, we almost certainly haven't documented all of our deaths. Small numbers of unconnected deaths which aren't tested will just hide in the 'flu season' numbers. There are in fact an anomalously large number of deaths in the US over the last few months which tested negative for influenza. It's highly likely that these will eventually be connected to coronavirus, and indeed I know of at least one case where that actually happened and a death was 'back dated' after it was traced to a cluster and tested.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Celebrim, post: 7942653, member: 4937"] Right. But again, SK's extensive testing proves that can't be what is happening, however hopeful and reassuring it might be to believe that is what is happening. Likewise, the size of outbreaks can be predicted to within constraints that, while those constraints may seem large (often give or take an order of magnitude), nonetheless do constrain the base number greatly because very small changes in the base number yield massive changes in the outcome of exponential functions over time. Underlying math here: [MEDIA=youtube]Kas0tIxDvrg:1[/MEDIA] EDIT: One other thing I should have said is that the reverse of your argument is possible as well. People who make the argument you are making here tend to assume rather unreasonably that we have accurately documented the deaths, but not accurately documented the cases. And while that might seem reasonable, it's not really true except in cases when you are testing extensively. In the US for example, we almost certainly haven't documented all of our deaths. Small numbers of unconnected deaths which aren't tested will just hide in the 'flu season' numbers. There are in fact an anomalously large number of deaths in the US over the last few months which tested negative for influenza. It's highly likely that these will eventually be connected to coronavirus, and indeed I know of at least one case where that actually happened and a death was 'back dated' after it was traced to a cluster and tested. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*Geek Talk & Media
D&D and the rising pandemic
Top