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D&D and the rising pandemic
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<blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7943134" data-attributes="member: 72555"><p>The point of social distancing is not to save you. We don't really care if you get sick.</p><p></p><p>The point is to drop R0.</p><p></p><p>And you getting sick boosts R0.</p><p></p><p>Suppose there are 1000 people currently infected. There is a background R0 (spreading rate per infected person) of 0.5 with social distancing; so, after ~4 days, another 500 people are going to be infected.</p><p></p><p>That sucks, but an R0 of 0.5 is a winning situation. Because those 500 only infect 250, which only infect 125, which only infect 62, which only infect 31, which only infect 15, which only infect 7, which only infect 3, , which only infect 2, which only infects 1, who is tracked down before they infect someone else.</p><p></p><p>Now, suppose the area has a population of 10 million. Remember, only 1000 infected and untracked.</p><p></p><p>Now suppose you do some action that has a 0.005% chance of getting you infected each day. 1 in 20,000! How very unlikely! Somethimg like: 5 people touch the food, and odds any one person is infected is 1 in 10000. And even if they are infected, only a 1/10 chance they'll pass it to you! So 0.005% chance of getting infected!</p><p></p><p>But so do the other 10 million people.</p><p></p><p>0.00005 * 10,000,000 is 500. Over 2 days this comes to 1000 more people infected.</p><p></p><p>500+1000 means that the current 1000 people infect 1500. An R0 of 1.5.</p><p></p><p>Those 1500 infect 2250, who infect 3400, who infect 5000, who infect 7500, who infect 11,000, who infect 17000, etc.</p><p></p><p>This doesn't look as great as the first situation does it?</p><p></p><p>The action you did -- reduce distancing on 5 people when 0.01% of the population is infected -- can boost R0 significantly if done widely.</p><p></p><p>This thing can take up to 2 weeks to develop. If we keep distance for 2 weeks and make R0 low, the disease will starve, and collapse. If people did perfect isolation for 2 weeks, and then afterwards only went out if they where well and had no exposure to someone sick, we'd reduce covid19 down to trace numbers.</p><p></p><p>If we drop R0 to 0.5 and hold it for a month, and start testing everyone with flu symptoms towards the end of the period, we can do something similar.</p><p></p><p>If R0 remains over 1.0 with current measures, then there isn't a way to choke off the virus without a huge testing response (basically, new measures to lower R0).</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="NotAYakk, post: 7943134, member: 72555"] The point of social distancing is not to save you. We don't really care if you get sick. The point is to drop R0. And you getting sick boosts R0. Suppose there are 1000 people currently infected. There is a background R0 (spreading rate per infected person) of 0.5 with social distancing; so, after ~4 days, another 500 people are going to be infected. That sucks, but an R0 of 0.5 is a winning situation. Because those 500 only infect 250, which only infect 125, which only infect 62, which only infect 31, which only infect 15, which only infect 7, which only infect 3, , which only infect 2, which only infects 1, who is tracked down before they infect someone else. Now, suppose the area has a population of 10 million. Remember, only 1000 infected and untracked. Now suppose you do some action that has a 0.005% chance of getting you infected each day. 1 in 20,000! How very unlikely! Somethimg like: 5 people touch the food, and odds any one person is infected is 1 in 10000. And even if they are infected, only a 1/10 chance they'll pass it to you! So 0.005% chance of getting infected! But so do the other 10 million people. 0.00005 * 10,000,000 is 500. Over 2 days this comes to 1000 more people infected. 500+1000 means that the current 1000 people infect 1500. An R0 of 1.5. Those 1500 infect 2250, who infect 3400, who infect 5000, who infect 7500, who infect 11,000, who infect 17000, etc. This doesn't look as great as the first situation does it? The action you did -- reduce distancing on 5 people when 0.01% of the population is infected -- can boost R0 significantly if done widely. This thing can take up to 2 weeks to develop. If we keep distance for 2 weeks and make R0 low, the disease will starve, and collapse. If people did perfect isolation for 2 weeks, and then afterwards only went out if they where well and had no exposure to someone sick, we'd reduce covid19 down to trace numbers. If we drop R0 to 0.5 and hold it for a month, and start testing everyone with flu symptoms towards the end of the period, we can do something similar. If R0 remains over 1.0 with current measures, then there isn't a way to choke off the virus without a huge testing response (basically, new measures to lower R0). [/QUOTE]
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