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Message: <blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7943525" data-attributes="member: 72555">Austria has banned gatherings of 5 or more.[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/austria-bans-gatherings-people-tightens-border-200316092843467.html[/URL]So a big problem is that this is growing 22%-33% per day.  And deaths lag measures to contain the virus by about 3 weeks.1.22^20 is 45.  1.33^20 is 300.For every death there are 5 people who are very sick and need 2-6 weeks of ICU, and if they don't get it, they have a very high chance of death.So if you have 2 deaths/day today, and you lock things down, in 20 days you can have 90 to 600 deaths/day, and every day have 450 to 3000 people who need ICU beds for ~4 weeks.If you "level" the number of infections, after 3 weeks you need 9000 to 60000 ICU beds in use to keep people alive.Nobody has enough ICU beds to handle that for very long.  So when you see that coming, extreme measures may be needed to prevent your hospital system from failing and needless deaths happening.This is what is happening in Italy right now.[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101680/coronavirus-cases-development-italy/?fbclid=IwAR0HMosPETX5i0Jem0FGXKN2IZIkigeNYjhmDRgJo7GbE8D5H-kWuhuHFzA[/URL]Those are new diagnosed cases; and as Italy is mostly diagnosing serious cases (that need hospital support), those are new serious cases (with about a week delay since infection).350 new deaths yesterday.  Those are mostly people who got infected before the lockdown measures.  Many only dead because Italy has an ICU shortage.  The numbers keep growing.[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/13/21178289/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-us-countries-italy-iran-singapore-hong-kong[/URL]USA is 10 days behind Italy.Here are Italians talking to themselves 10 days ago, telling themselves what they wished they knew then:[MEDIA=youtube]o_cImRzKXOs[/MEDIA]I hope that is sufficiently cited.#stayathome</blockquote>

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