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Message: <blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7944796" data-attributes="member: 72555">Lovely graph.But the actual health care system capacity is closer to 0.1% of the population than 15%.Because 5% of the people sick need 3 weeks of respirator care.And the USA has 65000 of them.  Imagine they (a) scrounge up 20k more, and (b) kick everyone on them off so they are all usable for Covid19.85k/5% is 1.7 million people sick.  But those 5% need 3 weeks of care, so the most you can handle per day is about 81,000.81,000/300 million is, carry the two, well 0 within rounding error.  And while that is a joke, it is also true: in order to flatten the curve to stay under healthcare capacity, we need the curve to stretch for a crazy number like 10 years.To beat this, we need capacity (millions of respirators and technicians) or a vaccine, and we have to accept this isn't going to end soon.In any case, Iran is about to show us what happens when you are hit by this epidemic and do nothing to stop it.  80*.05 is 16.  I hope my math is wrong.</blockquote>