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D&D and the rising pandemic
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<blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7945242" data-attributes="member: 72555"><p>Is R0 in that situation 1.0 or not? Do people self-isolate better once they have symptoms?</p><p></p><p>But, using reasonable assumptions, it is likely you are more likely to get it and spread it <em>now</em>, but getting it <em>now</em> and spreading it <em>now</em> is <em>worse</em> for the population and health care system.</p><p></p><p>Imagine you hit the emergency button and got the epidemic under control just in time. In 4-8 weeks your health care system is going to be maxed out with ICU usage. And that measures are bringing R0 down below 1 effectively.</p><p></p><p>If you get an infection or spread it <em>now</em>, you add to that spike. If you do actions that could spread it in 2-4 weeks, you add <em>less</em> to that spike; you add it to the falling action after the heath care system overload.</p><p></p><p>In a strange way, risky behavior doesn't matter if you have or catch covid 19 from it (!) The product of risky behavior over the population over time determines how much covid 19 spreads.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="NotAYakk, post: 7945242, member: 72555"] Is R0 in that situation 1.0 or not? Do people self-isolate better once they have symptoms? But, using reasonable assumptions, it is likely you are more likely to get it and spread it [I]now[/I], but getting it [I]now[/I] and spreading it [I]now[/I] is [I]worse[/I] for the population and health care system. Imagine you hit the emergency button and got the epidemic under control just in time. In 4-8 weeks your health care system is going to be maxed out with ICU usage. And that measures are bringing R0 down below 1 effectively. If you get an infection or spread it [I]now[/I], you add to that spike. If you do actions that could spread it in 2-4 weeks, you add [I]less[/I] to that spike; you add it to the falling action after the heath care system overload. In a strange way, risky behavior doesn't matter if you have or catch covid 19 from it (!) The product of risky behavior over the population over time determines how much covid 19 spreads. [/QUOTE]
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