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Message: <blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7945327" data-attributes="member: 72555">But it does tell you the derivative of the risk.An R0 of 3 with a average spread of 4 days means every 8 days there are 10x more people infected.  So your chance of getting it after two weeks is roughly 100x greater.An R0 of 0.5 and effective self isolation when symptomatic means that after 2 weeks, there are 1.75x as many sick, but fewer people symptomatic walking around.So what the R0 is and what the population behaviour is to symptoms changes if it is more short term personally risky now or in 2 weeks.But social distancing this isn't about short term personal risk.  It is about group risk.  It is about keeping the infected rate below health care capacity, and in the medium term dropping the population risk to near zero.Your personal short term risk from failing to social distance can be small, but the medium-long cost to the group can be huge, at the same time.Acts that raise R0 (failing to social distance) right now have much higher costs than they will in 4 weeks, unless we go the Iran route of "oh well, just let millions die" and surrender.</blockquote>