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Message: <blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7945404" data-attributes="member: 72555">(A) their numbers are lies.  Pretty transparent lies.They had a pretty normal for C19 exponential curve.  Then one day, their new cases plummited and 90% of those who had it where listed as recovered, which isn't how Covid 19 works.  After that it they seemed to be rolling dice to see what gets submitted, with values going up and down.Meanwhile, a large percentage of their parlaiment is sick with it and a bunch of their leaders have died.  Those are harder to hide.(B) if I'm right, and 1%-8% of the country is infected, almost all of them got infected in the last week, because that is what exponential curves look like.  It takes about 20 days to die.In a month, Iran is going to be bad.  Not sure how bad.  Other countries which aren't self isolating and whose government is a bit less insular will also experience it over the next few months, and we'll have plenty of video footage of mass graves.Yes, I'm aware that actually telling you what is going on doesn't work.  I gave you a 7 paragraph answer to your question, and you dismissed it off hand.  /shrugRegardless, I'll explain again.  Because maybe someone will listen.Suppose you have an infection that grows by a factor of 10 every week, like Covid-19 can.Now, suppose there is a "cult of the lick", which goes up to strangers and licks them.  They only do this once per year.  If they lick someone with the virus, they catch it.  Each licks 1000 people on that day.There are 1 thousand of them, and there are 1 million in the country.On day 1, there is 1 person sick with the virus.  The cult of the lick activates!Each of them have a 1 in 1 thousand chance of being infected.  Together, they have about a 63% chance of nobody being infected, and on average one of them gets infected (sometimes 0, sometimes 1, sometimes 2, sometimes more; the average is 1 = 0.001 * 1000).So 4 weeks later there is an average of 20000 people sick, 2% of the population, if the "cult of the lick" activated on day 1.  Call this scenario A.In scenario B, the cult of the lick activates 3 weeks later.  There are now 1000 people infected.Each one has a 63% chance of being infected (we'll assume they cannot pass it to anyone else immediately); each lick is .999 likely to be safe, and .999^1000 is 37%ish, so 63% chance of being infected.  Much higher!  On average, the 1000 members of the cult of the lick infect 630 more people. (well, 630/1000 of them)So the total infected goes up from 1000 to 1630.Then another week passes.  On week 4, there are 16300 people infected on average.In Scenario A, the risk of being infected for members of the cult was lower, the number of newly infected people was lower, but the population after 4 week was worse off.In Scenario B, the risk of a licker was higher, more people where infected by the mass-licking, but the population after 4 weeks was better off than Scenario A.Taking a risk earlier in an exponential situation is worse for the population, even if it is sometimes better for the individual.</blockquote>

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