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Message: <blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7948748" data-attributes="member: 72555">That sadly works.After 100s of Covid-19 deaths/day, you cannot count Covid-19 deaths even.  Italy ran out of capacity to test people before they died (because they tested people in Hospital, and the backlog meant that many people died before they got to Hospital).  So once you hit 100s of deaths/day, look at excess deaths compared to the previous year.  (which I have read means that Italy, as bad as the numbers are, is undercounting Covid 19 deaths by 3x ish).The downside to counting deaths is that it is a 2-4 week trailing indicator.  You can make assumptions about how much it spreads and the fatality rate in order to turn that into a rough current infected number.We've had 50 years of globalization.  In it, we've had 1 bad epidemic, and seen a large number that got close (and could have been worse).This crisis is not unpredictable.  Epidemiologists have been saying this was coming for multiple decades.  It was even assumed it would be a respiratory illness, like Covid-19, because of how well they spread.What we've been doing is building up an Epidemiological debt and now we are paying it off.  Structurally you can actually arrange for such debt to not build up.  It might require more than one plague.Well, that is the quickest path to 2-10 million dead.Yes.  You should get someone to deliver it to you, not get it yourself.There are caremongering groups pretty much everywhere (multiple ones in major cities by neighborhood) who will get you groceries for far less than "I am in self isolation" reasons.</blockquote>

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