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Message: <blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7950450" data-attributes="member: 72555">Based off[USER=6748898] ad_hoc's[/USER] graphs above:8 days for 10x increase in number of confirmed cases.8 days for a 10x increase in the number of deaths (last 8 days).This indicates to me that it is very plausible that the "testing coverage" in the USA isn't getting better/worse.There are 100 positive deaths for every death.  If a death takes an average of 20 days since infection, and every 8 days the epidemic is getting 10x larger, in those 20 days the epidemic has gotten 316x larger, unless social distancing has kicked in.  If we assume social distancing has lowered the spread to 2x every 8 days in the last 8 days, the epidemic has instead gotten 10^1.5 * 2 or 63 time bigger.  So in the next 20 days, you can expect 6,300 deaths.  If it didn't, you can instead expect 31,600 deaths.6300 deaths is at the edge of the entire country's medical capabilities, because for every dead person in a high quality hospital, you have 5-15 people in the ICU.  And 30,000 to 90,000 ICUs will take every ICU not in use in the USA.If almost all of your confirmed cases are people arriving with serious issues in hospital, and that happens ~8 days after infection, then since they got infected the epidemic has gotten 10x larger.When the 80,000 people who are diagnosed got infected, back on March 18, there are now about 800,000 people who are going to get sick enough to need hospital care.  This will respond quicker to isolation, however.If we map back 1.5 more weeks (12 days) we get to 2,500 people on or before March 4th who got sick and will eventually need serious hospital care.  About 5x the dead, which is not that inconsistent with other countries.Based on 1918, this will hit big cities first, then burn through the countryside.</blockquote>

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