Menu
News
All News
Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
Pathfinder
Starfinder
Warhammer
2d20 System
Year Zero Engine
Industry News
Reviews
Dragon Reflections
Columns
Weekly Digests
Weekly News Digest
Freebies, Sales & Bundles
RPG Print News
RPG Crowdfunding News
Game Content
ENterplanetary DimENsions
Mythological Figures
Opinion
Worlds of Design
Peregrine's Next
RPG Evolution
Other Columns
From the Freelancing Frontline
Monster ENcyclopedia
WotC/TSR Alumni Look Back
4 Hours w/RSD (Ryan Dancey)
The Road to 3E (Jonathan Tweet)
Greenwood's Realms (Ed Greenwood)
Drawmij's TSR (Jim Ward)
Community
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Resources
Wiki
Pages
Latest activity
Media
New media
New comments
Search media
Downloads
Latest reviews
Search resources
EN Publishing
Store
EN5ider
Adventures in ZEITGEIST
Awfully Cheerful Engine
What's OLD is NEW
Judge Dredd & The Worlds Of 2000AD
War of the Burning Sky
Level Up: Advanced 5E
Events & Releases
Upcoming Events
Private Events
Featured Events
Socials!
Twitch
YouTube
Facebook (EN Publishing)
Facebook (EN World)
Twitter
Instagram
TikTok
Podcast
Features
Top 5 RPGs Compiled Charts 2004-Present
Adventure Game Industry Market Research Summary (RPGs) V1.0
Ryan Dancey: Acquiring TSR
Q&A With Gary Gygax
D&D Rules FAQs
TSR, WotC, & Paizo: A Comparative History
D&D Pronunciation Guide
Million Dollar TTRPG Kickstarters
Tabletop RPG Podcast Hall of Fame
Eric Noah's Unofficial D&D 3rd Edition News
D&D in the Mainstream
D&D & RPG History
About Morrus
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
The
VOIDRUNNER'S CODEX
is coming! Explore new worlds, fight oppressive empires, fend off fearsome aliens, and wield deadly psionics with this comprehensive boxed set expansion for 5E and A5E!
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*Geek Talk & Media
D&D and the rising pandemic
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7951189" data-attributes="member: 72555"><p>If the USA pulls out of this with only 100k dead it is a victory, you won.</p><p></p><p>1 million dead is a draw.</p><p></p><p>10 million dead before Christmas is what happens if you lose this war.</p><p></p><p>This isn't hyperbole. This is people who professionally model epidemics doing their work in the US population.</p><p></p><p>~1 million dead is if you (a) don't develop better treatment, (b) never have hospitals overrun because you scale your capacity, (c) reach herd immunity over the year, and (d) don't get lucky with a miracle (vaccine faster than anyone thinks possible, mild strain that spreads faster and grants immunity, treatment that stops it in its tracks).</p><p></p><p>~10 million dead is what happens if you hospitals can't keep up.</p><p></p><p>And for every dead person, many people with lifetime lung capacity damage.</p><p></p><p>Deaths grow at 33% daily without social distancing. 1.33^20 is 300; 1.33^30 is 5000.</p><p></p><p>The death curve changes about <strong>20 days</strong> after you change behavior.</p><p></p><p>So an area with 10 deaths and no social distancing has already "booked" <strong>3000 deaths</strong>, give or take.</p><p></p><p>Look at when Italy started serious measures. They started on 21 February 2020 with 21 deaths.</p><p></p><p>16 days later, on Sunday 8 March 2020 they locked down the North with 366 deaths. (366/21)^(1/16) is 1.19, or 19% growth rate per day.</p><p></p><p>Then on the 9th the entire country.</p><p></p><p>From the 8th to the 15th deaths rose to 1809, or 25.6% per day.</p><p>From the 15th to the 22nd deaths rose to 5476, or 17.1% per day.</p><p></p><p>Now the problem is by this point, too many people where dying for them to get to hospital and be tested before they die.</p><p></p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-homes-insigh/uncounted-among-coronavirus-victims-deaths-sweep-through-italys-nursing-homes-idUSKBN2152V0[/URL]</p><p></p><p>One town has 164 deaths. 31 attributed to coronovirus. 56 died in the same period last year. So 77 <strong>excess deaths</strong> which could be Covid-19 deaths who couldn't get to hospital before they died, or 350% of the actual official deaths.</p><p></p><p>It is plausible that Italy is undercounting their deaths by 3x, and that Covid-19 has already killed 25,000 despite a national lockdown. So possibly there are 2000 people per day dying, from 20 total just over a month ago.</p><p></p><p>At this point we are approaching 20 days after national lockdown. This should drop the growth rate closer to 10%, so 2000 per day. Then you hope to strangle the virus and bend the curve down, but still you end up with 1000s of deaths per day.</p><p></p><p>At 60 million people, if 1% die that is 600,000. You can keep up 3000 deaths/day for 200 days and not run out of fuel for this fire. And Italy death rates are higher due to health care system overload.</p><p></p><p>#stayhome</p><p></p><p>You be asymptomatic. Then you just spread it to people who die.</p><p></p><p>You could get a mild case, and have your lung capacity reduced by 10% for the rest of your life.</p><p></p><p>You could get a moderate case, and be hospitalized in overloaded facilities.</p><p></p><p>You could even get a serious case that you could live through with treatement. And you get treatment, because you are young and healthy. But every person who gets treatment is soon going to be someone else who they let die.</p><p></p><p>There are lots of "reasons" people make up why Italy is different than the USA or wherever it is you are living. But we are seeing steeper death curves in the USA than we saw in Italy in uncontrolled epidemics -- 33% instead of 20% deaths/day.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="NotAYakk, post: 7951189, member: 72555"] If the USA pulls out of this with only 100k dead it is a victory, you won. 1 million dead is a draw. 10 million dead before Christmas is what happens if you lose this war. This isn't hyperbole. This is people who professionally model epidemics doing their work in the US population. ~1 million dead is if you (a) don't develop better treatment, (b) never have hospitals overrun because you scale your capacity, (c) reach herd immunity over the year, and (d) don't get lucky with a miracle (vaccine faster than anyone thinks possible, mild strain that spreads faster and grants immunity, treatment that stops it in its tracks). ~10 million dead is what happens if you hospitals can't keep up. And for every dead person, many people with lifetime lung capacity damage. Deaths grow at 33% daily without social distancing. 1.33^20 is 300; 1.33^30 is 5000. The death curve changes about [b]20 days[/b] after you change behavior. So an area with 10 deaths and no social distancing has already "booked" [b]3000 deaths[/b], give or take. Look at when Italy started serious measures. They started on 21 February 2020 with 21 deaths. 16 days later, on Sunday 8 March 2020 they locked down the North with 366 deaths. (366/21)^(1/16) is 1.19, or 19% growth rate per day. Then on the 9th the entire country. From the 8th to the 15th deaths rose to 1809, or 25.6% per day. From the 15th to the 22nd deaths rose to 5476, or 17.1% per day. Now the problem is by this point, too many people where dying for them to get to hospital and be tested before they die. [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-homes-insigh/uncounted-among-coronavirus-victims-deaths-sweep-through-italys-nursing-homes-idUSKBN2152V0[/URL] One town has 164 deaths. 31 attributed to coronovirus. 56 died in the same period last year. So 77 [b]excess deaths[/b] which could be Covid-19 deaths who couldn't get to hospital before they died, or 350% of the actual official deaths. It is plausible that Italy is undercounting their deaths by 3x, and that Covid-19 has already killed 25,000 despite a national lockdown. So possibly there are 2000 people per day dying, from 20 total just over a month ago. At this point we are approaching 20 days after national lockdown. This should drop the growth rate closer to 10%, so 2000 per day. Then you hope to strangle the virus and bend the curve down, but still you end up with 1000s of deaths per day. At 60 million people, if 1% die that is 600,000. You can keep up 3000 deaths/day for 200 days and not run out of fuel for this fire. And Italy death rates are higher due to health care system overload. #stayhome You be asymptomatic. Then you just spread it to people who die. You could get a mild case, and have your lung capacity reduced by 10% for the rest of your life. You could get a moderate case, and be hospitalized in overloaded facilities. You could even get a serious case that you could live through with treatement. And you get treatment, because you are young and healthy. But every person who gets treatment is soon going to be someone else who they let die. There are lots of "reasons" people make up why Italy is different than the USA or wherever it is you are living. But we are seeing steeper death curves in the USA than we saw in Italy in uncontrolled epidemics -- 33% instead of 20% deaths/day. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*Geek Talk & Media
D&D and the rising pandemic
Top