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Message: <blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7952891" data-attributes="member: 72555">This year 20 million more people where born than died.  31+29+30 days is 90 days, so 222 thousand per day.Yesterday, for which we have complete stats, there where 3,204 deaths.  As noted above, this may be an undercount.Over the past week, deaths have grown from 14,640 to 34,065, a rate of 12.8% per day.   The deaths per day has also been growing at roughly that rate.3204 * 1.128^X = 222,000 is the number of days, at this rate, before Covid-19 causes deaths to overtake births for a day.  Solving for X we get ln(69)/ln(1.28) or 18 days.So at the current rate of growth, on April 17th more people will die than are born.  Definitely for the first time since WW2, and if not that since the 1918 pandemic.[spoiler]There are many ways the rates can change.  Social isolation may prove effective, reducing the curve from larger areas.  New outbreaks may be preempted with early response.But the 13% per day already includes the under control Wuhan deaths, and the relatively under control Seattle, Italy, etc.  There are a number of places where it is getting out of control (NY, France, Spain, UK) and there are weeks of growth left, plus a myriad of under tested places where an epidemic could be exploding.A week ago, the USA looked good with a declining growth rate in deaths; then NYC exploded and overtook Seattle.  That wasn't a surprise; that was expected to happen.  If not NYC, then somewhere else.Every week we should expect an exponentially increasing number of new hotspots in the USA and around the world, as pandemics have local exponential epidemics, and a global exponential number of epidemics.[/spoiler]</blockquote>

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