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D&D and the rising pandemic
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<blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7955259" data-attributes="member: 72555"><p>How is that prediction coming? Mar 28 (5 days ago), I said 2 weeks to 25k-33k deaths in USA is plausible.</p><p></p><p>USA on Apr 1 had 5200 total deaths (Apr 2 not done yet). On Mar 28 they had 2220. That is 4 days, and 2.34x deaths, or 23.7% per day.</p><p></p><p>1.237^14 is 19.64x</p><p></p><p>2220 * 19.64 is 43,600.</p><p></p><p>So the USA is ahead of schedule.</p><p></p><p>Note that the USA now has 240,000 cases diagnosed. When the world had 240,000 cases diagnosed (Mar 19), 10 days later (Mar 29) they had 723,000 diagnosed, and 34,000 dead. So we are on track there too.</p><p></p><p>Going from 240,000 diagnosed to 1 million has taken 14 days. So on or about April 16, the USA could have 1 million Covid-19 cases diagnosed.</p><p></p><p>Currently, Covid-19 is the #3 cause of death in the USA. In a few days it will pass Cancer and Heart Disease. So for everyone who said "we shouldn't be worried, car accidents are more dangerous", well, you fixed it. Now they aren't.</p><p></p><p>USA population growth is about 0.7% per year, or about 5753 per day (last year). USA has 1049 deaths/day on Apr 1. At 23.7% growth rate, the USA is 8 days away from population decline.</p><p></p><p>On or about April 9th, 2020, US population starts declining due to Covid-19 (unless the death curve moves; 8 days isn't very long, and NYC's severe isolation didn't start early enough to prevent it from continuing to grow).</p><p></p><p>In late April/early May, the same may happen to the entire world.</p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><td></td><td></td></tr></table></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="NotAYakk, post: 7955259, member: 72555"] How is that prediction coming? Mar 28 (5 days ago), I said 2 weeks to 25k-33k deaths in USA is plausible. USA on Apr 1 had 5200 total deaths (Apr 2 not done yet). On Mar 28 they had 2220. That is 4 days, and 2.34x deaths, or 23.7% per day. 1.237^14 is 19.64x 2220 * 19.64 is 43,600. So the USA is ahead of schedule. Note that the USA now has 240,000 cases diagnosed. When the world had 240,000 cases diagnosed (Mar 19), 10 days later (Mar 29) they had 723,000 diagnosed, and 34,000 dead. So we are on track there too. Going from 240,000 diagnosed to 1 million has taken 14 days. So on or about April 16, the USA could have 1 million Covid-19 cases diagnosed. Currently, Covid-19 is the #3 cause of death in the USA. In a few days it will pass Cancer and Heart Disease. So for everyone who said "we shouldn't be worried, car accidents are more dangerous", well, you fixed it. Now they aren't. USA population growth is about 0.7% per year, or about 5753 per day (last year). USA has 1049 deaths/day on Apr 1. At 23.7% growth rate, the USA is 8 days away from population decline. On or about April 9th, 2020, US population starts declining due to Covid-19 (unless the death curve moves; 8 days isn't very long, and NYC's severe isolation didn't start early enough to prevent it from continuing to grow). In late April/early May, the same may happen to the entire world. [TABLE] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/QUOTE]
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