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Message: <blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7955481" data-attributes="member: 72555">It isn't bungling.It is something that doubles every 3 days and has a 20 day delay between measures and results.So when you see 2 deaths in a day, you have already locked in 250 deaths/day in 20 days, and it then starts to grow slower.  If you wait 3 days after 2 deaths in a day, you have 500/day locked in.  Wait a week?  1000/day.Look, I have absolutely no excuse to not understand exponential curves, and it took me far too long to get how horrible this is.  And after I did, I still missed stuff like the running out of ICU beds.What more, the error bars involved where ridiculously huge early on.  "Tiny" changes in spread rate, symptomatic rate, etc resulted in orders of magnitude (like, more than 1) difference in impact.Getting non-epidemiologists to get how dangerous this is is hard.  And the epidemiologists -- well, the naive answer remains "This is an upper repiratory infection.  Pandemics of these are all the same.  Everyone gets sick." - the fact that we have managed to contain and extinguish it is something new.  The consensus in the UK was to let it burn, until the Imperial college paper pointed out how hot the fire would be, and that there was a plausible way to avoid the fire.  Then they changed course.But, TL;DR, don't assume Italy bungled it.There are 4 countries on the planet who are not currently on track to duplicate what happened to Italy.   If you think Italy bungled it, you will have false confidence that your government seems competent, so it won't.Look here:[URL unfurl="true"]https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?fbclid=IwAR2FYB7JdbF72F_wHJGCCVOVwnUgqt-ntYUKGkHftxTalL7cD83_ZwRNqqc[/URL]There is a main sequence. Almost everyone is on it or near it.  Japan, AUS, Switzerland are marginal.  SK, Singapore, Taiwan and China are off it.  Iran is lying.(This is a double-log graph of total diagnosed vs new diagnoses in the last week.  At the far left, you have noise.  Once you are past SK, there is a main sequence that USA is currently at the top of.  Falling under this sequence a bit is modest controls, delaying disaster.  SK and China dropped of it like a cliff when they contained their epidemics.)</blockquote>

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