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D&D and the rising pandemic
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<blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7980842" data-attributes="member: 72555"><p>So NYC is ~20% infected. And we are undercounting Covid-19 deaths by about 1/3 (so 50% more die than the official stats). (NYC deaths * 1.5) / (NYC population * .2) is 1.2%.</p><p></p><p>Similar numbers show up in parts of Italy where they think almost everyone was infected -- about 1% death rate.</p><p></p><p>If herd immunity is at around 50% infected, that is 330 million / 2 * 1% or 1.65 million dead Americans. Of which about a million actually get diagnosted with Covid-19.</p><p></p><p>At a lifecycle of 7 days and an R0 of 2, going from 1 million active infected to 165 million infected takes about two months. Herd immunity is mostly zilch until you hit double-digit percents infected, so we can neglect that.</p><p></p><p>Herd immunity stops the disease from accelerating at around 1/(R0-1) immune. But it only causes the disease spread to seriously shrink at around twice that.</p><p></p><p>Get R0 down to 1.2 and have 50% immune and you end up with 0.6, or each active case spreads to another 1.5 people; you'll note that if 25% of the population are actively infected at that point, that means the virus grows to about 80% infected (50%+25%*1.5) even though it is "stopped"; if your disease was growing super-fast as you approach 50% immune, herd immunity isn't usually enough to stop it; but if there are people who are avoiding infection, they get infected less, and herd immunity can make the more exposed people stop feeding it.</p><p></p><p>So a herd immunity plan is to make it spread, and when about the millionths US citizen dies you have hit about 33% infected. At <strong>that point</strong>, restart some measures, this time boosted by herd immunity. Dead keep piling up and approach 2 million, but decelerate as (a) piles of corpses make people take social distancing more seriously, (b) herd immunity makes half-assed measures more effective, as front-line workers get culled earlier.</p><p></p><p>And plenty of jobs for mass-grave diggers. Got a backhoe license?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="NotAYakk, post: 7980842, member: 72555"] So NYC is ~20% infected. And we are undercounting Covid-19 deaths by about 1/3 (so 50% more die than the official stats). (NYC deaths * 1.5) / (NYC population * .2) is 1.2%. Similar numbers show up in parts of Italy where they think almost everyone was infected -- about 1% death rate. If herd immunity is at around 50% infected, that is 330 million / 2 * 1% or 1.65 million dead Americans. Of which about a million actually get diagnosted with Covid-19. At a lifecycle of 7 days and an R0 of 2, going from 1 million active infected to 165 million infected takes about two months. Herd immunity is mostly zilch until you hit double-digit percents infected, so we can neglect that. Herd immunity stops the disease from accelerating at around 1/(R0-1) immune. But it only causes the disease spread to seriously shrink at around twice that. Get R0 down to 1.2 and have 50% immune and you end up with 0.6, or each active case spreads to another 1.5 people; you'll note that if 25% of the population are actively infected at that point, that means the virus grows to about 80% infected (50%+25%*1.5) even though it is "stopped"; if your disease was growing super-fast as you approach 50% immune, herd immunity isn't usually enough to stop it; but if there are people who are avoiding infection, they get infected less, and herd immunity can make the more exposed people stop feeding it. So a herd immunity plan is to make it spread, and when about the millionths US citizen dies you have hit about 33% infected. At [b]that point[/b], restart some measures, this time boosted by herd immunity. Dead keep piling up and approach 2 million, but decelerate as (a) piles of corpses make people take social distancing more seriously, (b) herd immunity makes half-assed measures more effective, as front-line workers get culled earlier. And plenty of jobs for mass-grave diggers. Got a backhoe license? [/QUOTE]
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