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Message: <blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7982089" data-attributes="member: 72555">Oh me oh me!So let's play with herd immunity. 0.5% of USA with, say, half of the deaths happening in one month (a peak).330/200 is 1.6 million, so 800k dead in a month, 200k per week, or 30,000 dead per day.Now it could get worse.Pull back social distancing, and every city becomes NYC 2x.  (NYC hit 20%; we are talking 50%-80%+ infection for herd immunity).On the plus side, only 20k of those 30k will be diagnosed as covid-19 deaths; the rest will die before being diagnosed.Now the USA has 3 million deaths/year, or about 10,000 per day.  So in the height of the slaughter, 4x the typical deaths will ocdur, and half of all deaths will be attributed to Covid-19.Yes, that is a 9/11 every morning, another at lunch, another every afternoon, another at dusk, another after dinner, another at bedtime, another at midnight, another when you roll over in bed and half awake up, another when you stumble into the bathroom to pee, another when you wake up.Then a couple more, or heck a half dozen, for good measure.Every day for a month.Gloomy enough yet?If we assume they still don't lock down in response to that, you hit herd immunity around 90% infection.  That is about 3 million dead in the USA, give or take.And this happens everywhere that doesn't do NZ or SK style extinguishing.25-70 million dead worldwide.And all of this assumes recovered people are (a) fine, (b) immune.</blockquote>

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