Menu
News
All News
Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
Pathfinder
Starfinder
Warhammer
2d20 System
Year Zero Engine
Industry News
Reviews
Dragon Reflections
Columns
Weekly Digests
Weekly News Digest
Freebies, Sales & Bundles
RPG Print News
RPG Crowdfunding News
Game Content
ENterplanetary DimENsions
Mythological Figures
Opinion
Worlds of Design
Peregrine's Next
RPG Evolution
Other Columns
From the Freelancing Frontline
Monster ENcyclopedia
WotC/TSR Alumni Look Back
4 Hours w/RSD (Ryan Dancey)
The Road to 3E (Jonathan Tweet)
Greenwood's Realms (Ed Greenwood)
Drawmij's TSR (Jim Ward)
Community
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Resources
Wiki
Pages
Latest activity
Media
New media
New comments
Search media
Downloads
Latest reviews
Search resources
EN Publishing
Store
EN5ider
Adventures in ZEITGEIST
Awfully Cheerful Engine
What's OLD is NEW
Judge Dredd & The Worlds Of 2000AD
War of the Burning Sky
Level Up: Advanced 5E
Events & Releases
Upcoming Events
Private Events
Featured Events
Socials!
Twitch
YouTube
Facebook (EN Publishing)
Facebook (EN World)
Twitter
Instagram
TikTok
Podcast
Features
Top 5 RPGs Compiled Charts 2004-Present
Adventure Game Industry Market Research Summary (RPGs) V1.0
Ryan Dancey: Acquiring TSR
Q&A With Gary Gygax
D&D Rules FAQs
TSR, WotC, & Paizo: A Comparative History
D&D Pronunciation Guide
Million Dollar TTRPG Kickstarters
Tabletop RPG Podcast Hall of Fame
Eric Noah's Unofficial D&D 3rd Edition News
D&D in the Mainstream
D&D & RPG History
About Morrus
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
The
VOIDRUNNER'S CODEX
is coming! Explore new worlds, fight oppressive empires, fend off fearsome aliens, and wield deadly psionics with this comprehensive boxed set expansion for 5E and A5E!
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*Geek Talk & Media
D&D and the rising pandemic
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7983492" data-attributes="member: 72555"><p>The US federal government is using a single built-in excel function to predict what the spread of Covid-19 is doing. The US federal government isn't "trying to be strong everywhere", it is simply being incompetent.</p><p></p><p>Various state governments pandemic responses where predicated on a CDC that wasn't being incompetent (as was Canada's; Canada's central health agency was planning to coordinate with the CDC. But the CDC is hamstrung and not doing it.). They are scrambling to deal with this pandemic with zero to negative federal assistance.</p><p></p><p>Very few parts of the world have the testing capacity to mass test the population. Very few parts of the world have a public health infrastructure needed to contact trace positive cases and notify the people who are at risk to get a test. And this is reasonable; you need a <strong>LOT</strong> of work per positive result to do effective contact tracing in any kind of traditional way.</p><p></p><p>To do it non-traditionally, you need a central pandemic response that isn't incompetent and has the expertise for this sort of thing. Not many US states have a full-fledged set of pandemic experts on staff; and, the US federal response is hamstrung by its executive leadership, who is pushing for quack cures and reopening, instead of going to war with it.</p><p></p><p>Instead, what we have is untraced community spread. Social isolation can bend R0 -- reproductive number -- down, but it takes a serious and uniform effort to get it under 0. The US response, patchwork, means that R0 is at or above 1 in most of the country (geographically, and possibly population wise). Only in areas where the local government saw a disaster coming does it go below 1 (washington state, some areas of california, new york). And often too late. NYC is going to hit about 30% infection even with a shutdown.</p><p></p><p>To extinguish this quickly, you have to shut down <strong>before the 2nd death</strong> ideally, and definitely before the 12th. Washington got "lucky" in that it killed a bunch of people in an old folks home "early", so they had the political capital to do a shutdown earlier than most areas do.</p><p></p><p>NYC got unlucky, as apparently the subways meant that their R0 was insanely high, and by the time they responded it was everywhere.</p><p></p><p>Remember, if it doubles every 4 days and 1% die about 20 days after getting it, by the time the first person died you had 2^5*100 = 3,200 people infected. And 50 days later with uncontrolled spread 1 million are infected.</p><p></p><p>NYC had it doubling every 2-3 days instead of every 4 during that period, and did lockdown when around a dozen died. 20/2 is 10, 20/3 is 7, so 2^(7 to 10) * 100 * 12 150k to 1.2 million infected.</p><p></p><p>It is the places where there are no cases and nobody dead that need to lockdown to prevent this from growing. Then you need to reduce mobility and start contact tracing every new diagnosted case, and testing everyone with any symptoms whatsoever with a rapid turn-around test.</p><p></p><p>All of this requires central proactive leadership aimed at wiping out Covid-19, that the USA is lacking. The US central leadership is complaining that the malls aren't open, not that people are dieing.</p><p></p><p>With a privately run health care system, it is going bankrupt and the work for this public health measure doesn't come with funding; US health care is paid for by elective surgeries and other low-value high-price stuff, not by a central government that can aim resources at public health prevention.</p><p></p><p>The individual state model doesn't work well, because if one state says "naughty word it, let them die", the states that don't do that have to shut off travel to those states or their work is for nothing.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="NotAYakk, post: 7983492, member: 72555"] The US federal government is using a single built-in excel function to predict what the spread of Covid-19 is doing. The US federal government isn't "trying to be strong everywhere", it is simply being incompetent. Various state governments pandemic responses where predicated on a CDC that wasn't being incompetent (as was Canada's; Canada's central health agency was planning to coordinate with the CDC. But the CDC is hamstrung and not doing it.). They are scrambling to deal with this pandemic with zero to negative federal assistance. Very few parts of the world have the testing capacity to mass test the population. Very few parts of the world have a public health infrastructure needed to contact trace positive cases and notify the people who are at risk to get a test. And this is reasonable; you need a [B]LOT[/B] of work per positive result to do effective contact tracing in any kind of traditional way. To do it non-traditionally, you need a central pandemic response that isn't incompetent and has the expertise for this sort of thing. Not many US states have a full-fledged set of pandemic experts on staff; and, the US federal response is hamstrung by its executive leadership, who is pushing for quack cures and reopening, instead of going to war with it. Instead, what we have is untraced community spread. Social isolation can bend R0 -- reproductive number -- down, but it takes a serious and uniform effort to get it under 0. The US response, patchwork, means that R0 is at or above 1 in most of the country (geographically, and possibly population wise). Only in areas where the local government saw a disaster coming does it go below 1 (washington state, some areas of california, new york). And often too late. NYC is going to hit about 30% infection even with a shutdown. To extinguish this quickly, you have to shut down [B]before the 2nd death[/B] ideally, and definitely before the 12th. Washington got "lucky" in that it killed a bunch of people in an old folks home "early", so they had the political capital to do a shutdown earlier than most areas do. NYC got unlucky, as apparently the subways meant that their R0 was insanely high, and by the time they responded it was everywhere. Remember, if it doubles every 4 days and 1% die about 20 days after getting it, by the time the first person died you had 2^5*100 = 3,200 people infected. And 50 days later with uncontrolled spread 1 million are infected. NYC had it doubling every 2-3 days instead of every 4 during that period, and did lockdown when around a dozen died. 20/2 is 10, 20/3 is 7, so 2^(7 to 10) * 100 * 12 150k to 1.2 million infected. It is the places where there are no cases and nobody dead that need to lockdown to prevent this from growing. Then you need to reduce mobility and start contact tracing every new diagnosted case, and testing everyone with any symptoms whatsoever with a rapid turn-around test. All of this requires central proactive leadership aimed at wiping out Covid-19, that the USA is lacking. The US central leadership is complaining that the malls aren't open, not that people are dieing. With a privately run health care system, it is going bankrupt and the work for this public health measure doesn't come with funding; US health care is paid for by elective surgeries and other low-value high-price stuff, not by a central government that can aim resources at public health prevention. The individual state model doesn't work well, because if one state says "naughty word it, let them die", the states that don't do that have to shut off travel to those states or their work is for nothing. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*Geek Talk & Media
D&D and the rising pandemic
Top