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<blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 8008122" data-attributes="member: 72555"><p>Ontario is down to 240 cases/day, and 90% of them are in one city (Toronto) and 75% of them are medical care (old folks homes included) related.</p><p></p><p>So 24 cases/day for 8 million (give or take) people (depending on how widely you define "Toronto"). Plus others asymptomatic, of course.</p><p></p><p>Good news:</p><p></p><p>Areas with exhaustive contact tracing are finding asymptomatic infected people (people who catch C19 and get better without symptoms), and more importantly, are not finding infections in turn from them. Presymptomatic people (people who have C19, and before they develop symptoms) are a different story.</p><p></p><p>So contract tracing based on people with symptoms and positive tests (even a runny nose) should be effective at making Re plummit; have their contacts isolate and get tested. (By going after their as-yet asymptomatic contacts, we catch presymotomatic people before they start infecting others).</p><p></p><p>Social distancing and the rise of summer means that traditional colds are dying off; so <strong>everyone</strong> with <strong>any </strong>cold-type symptoms gets tested, you have a good chance of being able to choke this thing off.</p><p></p><p>Add in modest social distancing (no indoor choir singing! Masks for service workers! Working from home when possible!) and ramp up the economy without megadeath. Maybe.</p><p></p><p>---</p><p></p><p>This is one of the reasons behind "flatten the curve". It bought time. We know more about how it spreads, we have more PPE, we have hospitals that know how to treat it, we have tests to detect it. Now we can drop Re <strong>more efficiently</strong> than we could in March.</p><p></p><p>And if we keep Re under 1.0 and this thing dies out.</p><p></p><p>Now, the number of additional infected during the die out phase is (1/(1-Re)). So an Re of 0.9 isn't that useful (as we get 10x more infected before it dies out). An Re of 0.5 means we get 2x more infected, and one of 0.25 means we get 33% more infected. OTOH, our learning and testing and contact tracing gets better as numbers fall and time passes; so even an Re of 0.9 means it doesn't <strong>get worse</strong> (per day), and if costs are low enough we can sustain that and start applying improved measures.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="NotAYakk, post: 8008122, member: 72555"] Ontario is down to 240 cases/day, and 90% of them are in one city (Toronto) and 75% of them are medical care (old folks homes included) related. So 24 cases/day for 8 million (give or take) people (depending on how widely you define "Toronto"). Plus others asymptomatic, of course. Good news: Areas with exhaustive contact tracing are finding asymptomatic infected people (people who catch C19 and get better without symptoms), and more importantly, are not finding infections in turn from them. Presymptomatic people (people who have C19, and before they develop symptoms) are a different story. So contract tracing based on people with symptoms and positive tests (even a runny nose) should be effective at making Re plummit; have their contacts isolate and get tested. (By going after their as-yet asymptomatic contacts, we catch presymotomatic people before they start infecting others). Social distancing and the rise of summer means that traditional colds are dying off; so [b]everyone[/b] with [B]any [/B]cold-type symptoms gets tested, you have a good chance of being able to choke this thing off. Add in modest social distancing (no indoor choir singing! Masks for service workers! Working from home when possible!) and ramp up the economy without megadeath. Maybe. --- This is one of the reasons behind "flatten the curve". It bought time. We know more about how it spreads, we have more PPE, we have hospitals that know how to treat it, we have tests to detect it. Now we can drop Re [b]more efficiently[/b] than we could in March. And if we keep Re under 1.0 and this thing dies out. Now, the number of additional infected during the die out phase is (1/(1-Re)). So an Re of 0.9 isn't that useful (as we get 10x more infected before it dies out). An Re of 0.5 means we get 2x more infected, and one of 0.25 means we get 33% more infected. OTOH, our learning and testing and contact tracing gets better as numbers fall and time passes; so even an Re of 0.9 means it doesn't [b]get worse[/b] (per day), and if costs are low enough we can sustain that and start applying improved measures. [/QUOTE]
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