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<blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 8027028" data-attributes="member: 72555"><p>So this is the kind of thing habitual masks can help with.</p><p></p><p>If it drops spread by 50%, Rf goes from 2.6 to 1.3. The virus life cycle stays ~4 days. Before it doubled every 3 days (lg(2)/lg(2.6)*4). Afterwards, 11 days (lg(2)/lg(1.3)*4).</p><p></p><p>That huge gap buys time for contact tracing.</p><p></p><p>Add in "no choirs" etc and you might even get Rf under 1 *before contact tracing kicks in.</p><p></p><p></p><p>It is possible that a single strain mutated.</p><p></p><p>But covid-19 as we see it was not circulating much before December. The virus spreads too fast and kills too many people, and gene change tracking has a single source prior to the huge explosion over the world.</p><p></p><p>We have <strong>floors</strong> on how lethal it is, because there are areas of the world where 1% of the population died in a period of weeks as the epidemic flooded over them.</p><p></p><p>Your church should be online.</p><p></p><p>You <strong>JUST CANCELLED CHOIR</strong>? OMFG, no wonder your state is screwed.</p><p></p><p>Choirs are mega-spreading events, and up here they have been gone since March. We currently have single digit positive tests on about 1000 tests/day, and we aren't even talking about opening up <strong>Choirs</strong>. Church services are indoor gatherings; current rules permit 10 people in a gathering, ideally outdoors, with social distancing.</p><p></p><p><strong>You are killing 100,000s of fellow Texans with your current behavior.</strong></p><p></p><p>The goal around here is to eliminate Covid-19 so we can go from condition Orange to Yellow and reach stage-3 of reopening. (The city is Orange on a Green-Yellow-Orange-Red scale for health care resources, and we are on reopening stage 2. On this scale, you appear to be on the "naughty word it" reopening stage, and inferno health care status)</p><p></p><p>Yes, his plan is to kill a few million Americans. Maybe 1, maybe 2, maybe 3.</p><p></p><p>His behavior is going to do it slightly faster than yours is, but both of your behaviors are on the road to end up with millions dead.</p><p></p><p>Surrender is always an option, and your federal and state government is aiming for it. At best, they are making noises about how they give a naughty word, while not giving a naughty word, because giving a naughty word requires doing something.</p><p></p><p>I want to write up the game that teaches compound interest via a "conquest" or "economic expansion" system.</p><p></p><p>Ramping up the time scale makes compound interest far more obvious, especially if you are facing AI competition that does use it.</p><p></p><p></p><p>There are cities in Italy where over 1% of the population died during the epidemic.</p><p></p><p>Most of Italy shut down and managed to contain it, so this didn't happen everywhere.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="NotAYakk, post: 8027028, member: 72555"] So this is the kind of thing habitual masks can help with. If it drops spread by 50%, Rf goes from 2.6 to 1.3. The virus life cycle stays ~4 days. Before it doubled every 3 days (lg(2)/lg(2.6)*4). Afterwards, 11 days (lg(2)/lg(1.3)*4). That huge gap buys time for contact tracing. Add in "no choirs" etc and you might even get Rf under 1 *before contact tracing kicks in. It is possible that a single strain mutated. But covid-19 as we see it was not circulating much before December. The virus spreads too fast and kills too many people, and gene change tracking has a single source prior to the huge explosion over the world. We have [b]floors[/b] on how lethal it is, because there are areas of the world where 1% of the population died in a period of weeks as the epidemic flooded over them. Your church should be online. You [b]JUST CANCELLED CHOIR[/b]? OMFG, no wonder your state is screwed. Choirs are mega-spreading events, and up here they have been gone since March. We currently have single digit positive tests on about 1000 tests/day, and we aren't even talking about opening up [b]Choirs[/b]. Church services are indoor gatherings; current rules permit 10 people in a gathering, ideally outdoors, with social distancing. [b]You are killing 100,000s of fellow Texans with your current behavior.[/b] The goal around here is to eliminate Covid-19 so we can go from condition Orange to Yellow and reach stage-3 of reopening. (The city is Orange on a Green-Yellow-Orange-Red scale for health care resources, and we are on reopening stage 2. On this scale, you appear to be on the "naughty word it" reopening stage, and inferno health care status) Yes, his plan is to kill a few million Americans. Maybe 1, maybe 2, maybe 3. His behavior is going to do it slightly faster than yours is, but both of your behaviors are on the road to end up with millions dead. Surrender is always an option, and your federal and state government is aiming for it. At best, they are making noises about how they give a naughty word, while not giving a naughty word, because giving a naughty word requires doing something. I want to write up the game that teaches compound interest via a "conquest" or "economic expansion" system. Ramping up the time scale makes compound interest far more obvious, especially if you are facing AI competition that does use it. There are cities in Italy where over 1% of the population died during the epidemic. Most of Italy shut down and managed to contain it, so this didn't happen everywhere. [/QUOTE]
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