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D&D and the rising pandemic
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<blockquote data-quote="Umbran" data-source="post: 8101609" data-attributes="member: 177"><p>Ebola has an R0 of 1.5 to 1.9, fairly comparable to common influenza at 0.9 to 2.</p><p></p><p>Common colds typically have an R0 of 2 to 3</p><p></p><p>Covid-19, however, has an R0 of 2 to 6.</p><p></p><p>Measels, mumps, and chicken pox, by comparison, have an R0 of 10 or higher. So, no, ebola isn't highly spreadable, as these things go. It is at the <em>lower end</em> of the range of spreadability - which is good, because if it were not, we'd be dead.</p><p></p><p>Ebola is very, very dangerous to an individual - if you get it, you have like a 50% chance of dying (the death rate varies widely, outbreak to outbreak, but 50% is in the middle of the range). Case mortality rate for covid-19 is more like 3%.</p><p></p><p>So, individuals are <em>more scared</em> of ebola. However, because it spreads much more, covid-19 is far more deadly to a population. </p><p></p><p>Again, I note - China did not have the benefit of foreknowledge. Covid-19 has spread in Wuhan before anyone knew it existed. So, they had issues controlling it. Everyone else in the world had warning. And still they couldn't/didn't control it. </p><p></p><p>And remember - most of the Covid-19 in the US didn't come directly from China. It came through Europe. So, there's lots of folks in-between us and the source.</p><p></p><p>I understand that folks want someone to blame, especially someone other than themselves. But trying to blame China, when we have had even worse management of it, is hardly fair.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Umbran, post: 8101609, member: 177"] Ebola has an R0 of 1.5 to 1.9, fairly comparable to common influenza at 0.9 to 2. Common colds typically have an R0 of 2 to 3 Covid-19, however, has an R0 of 2 to 6. Measels, mumps, and chicken pox, by comparison, have an R0 of 10 or higher. So, no, ebola isn't highly spreadable, as these things go. It is at the [I]lower end[/I] of the range of spreadability - which is good, because if it were not, we'd be dead. Ebola is very, very dangerous to an individual - if you get it, you have like a 50% chance of dying (the death rate varies widely, outbreak to outbreak, but 50% is in the middle of the range). Case mortality rate for covid-19 is more like 3%. So, individuals are [I]more scared[/I] of ebola. However, because it spreads much more, covid-19 is far more deadly to a population. Again, I note - China did not have the benefit of foreknowledge. Covid-19 has spread in Wuhan before anyone knew it existed. So, they had issues controlling it. Everyone else in the world had warning. And still they couldn't/didn't control it. And remember - most of the Covid-19 in the US didn't come directly from China. It came through Europe. So, there's lots of folks in-between us and the source. I understand that folks want someone to blame, especially someone other than themselves. But trying to blame China, when we have had even worse management of it, is hardly fair. [/QUOTE]
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