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D&D and the rising pandemic
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<blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 8139580" data-attributes="member: 72555"><p>Yes, so it is very likely that 95% immunity to the <strong>disease</strong> will lead to a large amount of reduction in <strong>passing the disease on</strong> to other people.</p><p></p><p>Covid 19 seems to have a large variation in its spreading. Most people spread the disease to 1 or fewer people. Some people spread it to 10, 100 or even 1000 people directly. Those "super spreaders" <strong>seem</strong> to have driven the early part of the spread. Take SK, where a single person was responsible for the entire 2nd wave of disease.</p><p></p><p>Suppose the disease is 50% likely to make you nearly completely non-infectious, and 90% likely to prevent you from being a super-spreader.</p><p></p><p>Toss on modest amounts of public mask use, and the disease could wipe itself out pretty quickly, even before universal inoculation.</p><p></p><p>(of course, the disease could also mutate in response to this huge selection pressure, so we aren't out of the woods yet).</p><p></p><p>---</p><p></p><p>The best thing coming out of this is that we now know how to make a vaccine from genetic data in under a year. And for at least a while, funding that kind of infrastructure will be in vogue.</p><p></p><p>Covid-19 could have been smallpox bad (clean-field smallpox has an insane fatality rate; entire civilizations where wiped out by it), and we can still run into a smallpox-bad disease in the future. The ability to turn vaccinations around rapidly will have high value.</p><p></p><p>As a toy model, if we assume that the chance of an epidemic starting is roughly proportional to the number of people alive times the time they are alive (ie, each minute of the day, everyone has roughly the same chance of being patient zero for a new epidemic). We can check this model against "lesser" epidemics we have spotted over the last few decades (SARS-1, MERS, various flus). Then we can expect our highly interconnected world plus huge population will lead to new epidemics with higher frequency.</p><p></p><p>I read some SF about a post-antibotics future. In it, populations where sessile and defensive, not allowing people to move around, in order to block disease vectors. You'd trade, but you'd trade with sterilized stuff.</p><p></p><p>Biotech can help us avoid that future.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="NotAYakk, post: 8139580, member: 72555"] Yes, so it is very likely that 95% immunity to the [b]disease[/b] will lead to a large amount of reduction in [b]passing the disease on[/b] to other people. Covid 19 seems to have a large variation in its spreading. Most people spread the disease to 1 or fewer people. Some people spread it to 10, 100 or even 1000 people directly. Those "super spreaders" [b]seem[/b] to have driven the early part of the spread. Take SK, where a single person was responsible for the entire 2nd wave of disease. Suppose the disease is 50% likely to make you nearly completely non-infectious, and 90% likely to prevent you from being a super-spreader. Toss on modest amounts of public mask use, and the disease could wipe itself out pretty quickly, even before universal inoculation. (of course, the disease could also mutate in response to this huge selection pressure, so we aren't out of the woods yet). --- The best thing coming out of this is that we now know how to make a vaccine from genetic data in under a year. And for at least a while, funding that kind of infrastructure will be in vogue. Covid-19 could have been smallpox bad (clean-field smallpox has an insane fatality rate; entire civilizations where wiped out by it), and we can still run into a smallpox-bad disease in the future. The ability to turn vaccinations around rapidly will have high value. As a toy model, if we assume that the chance of an epidemic starting is roughly proportional to the number of people alive times the time they are alive (ie, each minute of the day, everyone has roughly the same chance of being patient zero for a new epidemic). We can check this model against "lesser" epidemics we have spotted over the last few decades (SARS-1, MERS, various flus). Then we can expect our highly interconnected world plus huge population will lead to new epidemics with higher frequency. I read some SF about a post-antibotics future. In it, populations where sessile and defensive, not allowing people to move around, in order to block disease vectors. You'd trade, but you'd trade with sterilized stuff. Biotech can help us avoid that future. [/QUOTE]
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