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Message: <blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 8141569" data-attributes="member: 72555">About 1% of actually infected.  2% of diagnosed would mean you missed about half of those infected, it doesn't disprove it.But you actually miss more than 75% of those infected.  About half of the US infections have been in the last 2 months, and most of those in the last few weeks.  The dead just aren't dead yet.The 1% value is useful when you ask "why don't we just let everyone get sick".Now this varies with demographics of the region.  USA is going to have a lower deathnrate than Italy; it has a younger population.Except most people infected get infected late in the outbreak, with fewer people left to be infected, and if they managed to avoid infection the outbreak would probably infect the people they would have infected a few minutes, hours or days later.Early prevention in an outbreak cut short by vaccination change the math hugely.  Then shaving infections off the chain saves many lives.Similarly, one plague spreader in an area of responsible people has their effects blunted by the work of other people.Max marginal deaths (per plague spreader) then happens in a population that is half assing plague spreading, as each spreader accellerates the plague just enough to harvest the most dead people before vaccination.</blockquote>