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Message: <blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 8141720" data-attributes="member: 72555">There are many areas of the USA that are far, far past 10% infected.Deaths are a reliable lagging indicator of Covid-19 infection.Look at areas with 0.1% already dead to Covid-19 and deaths/day approaching 2% of existing deaths.  If we presume deaths lag infections by about a month, that means you are seeing a death rate from the infection rate 1 month ago.  If 0.5% total death rate, multiply by 200x.  So 0.1% death rate with 2% day-over-day growth in deaths means on the order of 40% already infected.This isn't "diagnosed", but should rougly include asymptomatic people.Without aggressively quarantining the red zones, this will spill over to areas that haven't decided to sacrifice their population.You can see it spread here in this gif:[MEDIA=twitter]1334703963074158592[/MEDIA]That is 1 months spread.  Dark green is under 0.02% diagnosed over last 2 weeks.  Dark purple is over 2% diagnosed over last 2 weeks (a factor of over 100x).  The plague lands spread like a stain, as aggressive border control isn't occurring; areas that "do the right thing" get dragged down by the plague carriers driving over county lines.Areas with outbreaks are going to undercount infected more than areas without, because testing gets overwealmed, and who wants to go to a testing center for a 4 hour lineup with a sniffle when 50% of the people in line will test postive to Covid-19.</blockquote>

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