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D&D Update: 2024 Rulebooks & Survey Results
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<blockquote data-quote="Chaosmancer" data-source="post: 9193417" data-attributes="member: 6801228"><p>Having caught up to more of the conversation, there is a point I'm seeing that is itching at my brain. </p><p></p><p>People keep declaring the standard array is "too high" or "too powerful". Which is weird to me. Because, what this comes down to, is DCs. </p><p></p><p>The only thing that generally matters for ability scores is the d20 roll. HP is the only outlier, and that is definitely felt by the importance of Constitution. Now, a standard array 1st thru 4th level character is going to have a +5 to their rolls. And there are some interesting numbers we can play around with here. </p><p></p><p>PG 121 of the DMG tells us that at levels 1 thru 4, a trap that is a "setback" would have a DC of 10-11, a dangerous trap should have a DC of 12-15, and a deadly trap is 16 - 20. </p><p></p><p>PG 274 of the DMG says that monster save DCs and AC for this level of play should also fall between 13 and 15, and can actually go a bit higher is they are less offensive or defensive, since you average the scores. </p><p></p><p>PG 174 of the PHB also tells us that Skill DCs are 10 for easy, 15 for medium, and 20 for hard. </p><p></p><p>Okay, why am I throwing all of these numbers out? Well, because with a known +5 we know what the expected percentages are from these numbers. And they are a bit interesting to stop and consider. </p><p></p><p>Traps: </p><p>Setback -> 75% - 80% chance of success</p><p>Dangerous -> 55% - 70% chance of success</p><p>Deadly -> 30% - 45% chance of success</p><p></p><p>DC's/AC -->55% - 65% chance of success</p><p></p><p>Skills: </p><p>Easy --> 80%</p><p>Medium --> 55%</p><p>Hard --> 30% </p><p></p><p>Now, there is one more thing we have to consider. A truism if you will. "Don't roll the dice, unless the outcome is in question" </p><p></p><p>Is a setback trap that the party is likely to avoid even worth putting in? Do we even bother, generally, rolling against a DC 10? Not often in my experience. Which means that we are looking at, generally, between a 55% and 65% chance of success. But ONLY when it matters. Only when it is important. You don't call a check for waving down the waitress, because the outcome doesn't matter. </p><p></p><p>And if someone said to you "Lives are on the line, this is vital to our success... you have a sixty percent chance of succeeding" would you feel good about those odds? I wouldn't. In my personal life, when things matter, I want to be at 80 or 90%. The thing is, 60% is nail-biting. It isn't a boring "well, I know I'm going to succeed" it is "oh boy, this is basically just a coin flip." And it only comes up on the actions that matter, the big ones, the actions that are driving the plot. </p><p></p><p>And this is with a character at their BEST. </p><p></p><p>I've played a variety of different arrays, and I've played a variety of solo and team versions of DnD. And, consistently, with the characters who had lower arrays, when I've been tasked with rolling the die? Having a +1 on a DC 15 is a 35% chance of success. That is a 65% chance of failure. I want to do everything possible to avoid that roll, because I'm essentially twice as likely to FAIL. And yes, I'm sure someone will accuse me of badwrongfun because the game isn't worth playing if you never fail. But you are missing the point when you say that. Because if we flip the numbers.... I'm still looking at a 1 in 3 chance of failure. That isn't "never failing". That's not the point. The point is, I want to succeed <strong><em>more than</em></strong> I fail. </p><p></p><p>Because it is a game. It is meant to be fun. And games where you fail twice as often as you succeed, are not fun. They are a grind. They are just an endless, futile struggle to achieve anything meaningful. So, I don't want that. I want to succeed more than I fail, because that's part of the fantasy. Succeeding and being successful, enacting change in the world. Being more than a nameless, faceless statistic.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Chaosmancer, post: 9193417, member: 6801228"] Having caught up to more of the conversation, there is a point I'm seeing that is itching at my brain. People keep declaring the standard array is "too high" or "too powerful". Which is weird to me. Because, what this comes down to, is DCs. The only thing that generally matters for ability scores is the d20 roll. HP is the only outlier, and that is definitely felt by the importance of Constitution. Now, a standard array 1st thru 4th level character is going to have a +5 to their rolls. And there are some interesting numbers we can play around with here. PG 121 of the DMG tells us that at levels 1 thru 4, a trap that is a "setback" would have a DC of 10-11, a dangerous trap should have a DC of 12-15, and a deadly trap is 16 - 20. PG 274 of the DMG says that monster save DCs and AC for this level of play should also fall between 13 and 15, and can actually go a bit higher is they are less offensive or defensive, since you average the scores. PG 174 of the PHB also tells us that Skill DCs are 10 for easy, 15 for medium, and 20 for hard. Okay, why am I throwing all of these numbers out? Well, because with a known +5 we know what the expected percentages are from these numbers. And they are a bit interesting to stop and consider. Traps: Setback -> 75% - 80% chance of success Dangerous -> 55% - 70% chance of success Deadly -> 30% - 45% chance of success DC's/AC -->55% - 65% chance of success Skills: Easy --> 80% Medium --> 55% Hard --> 30% Now, there is one more thing we have to consider. A truism if you will. "Don't roll the dice, unless the outcome is in question" Is a setback trap that the party is likely to avoid even worth putting in? Do we even bother, generally, rolling against a DC 10? Not often in my experience. Which means that we are looking at, generally, between a 55% and 65% chance of success. But ONLY when it matters. Only when it is important. You don't call a check for waving down the waitress, because the outcome doesn't matter. And if someone said to you "Lives are on the line, this is vital to our success... you have a sixty percent chance of succeeding" would you feel good about those odds? I wouldn't. In my personal life, when things matter, I want to be at 80 or 90%. The thing is, 60% is nail-biting. It isn't a boring "well, I know I'm going to succeed" it is "oh boy, this is basically just a coin flip." And it only comes up on the actions that matter, the big ones, the actions that are driving the plot. And this is with a character at their BEST. I've played a variety of different arrays, and I've played a variety of solo and team versions of DnD. And, consistently, with the characters who had lower arrays, when I've been tasked with rolling the die? Having a +1 on a DC 15 is a 35% chance of success. That is a 65% chance of failure. I want to do everything possible to avoid that roll, because I'm essentially twice as likely to FAIL. And yes, I'm sure someone will accuse me of badwrongfun because the game isn't worth playing if you never fail. But you are missing the point when you say that. Because if we flip the numbers.... I'm still looking at a 1 in 3 chance of failure. That isn't "never failing". That's not the point. The point is, I want to succeed [B][I]more than[/I][/B] I fail. Because it is a game. It is meant to be fun. And games where you fail twice as often as you succeed, are not fun. They are a grind. They are just an endless, futile struggle to achieve anything meaningful. So, I don't want that. I want to succeed more than I fail, because that's part of the fantasy. Succeeding and being successful, enacting change in the world. Being more than a nameless, faceless statistic. [/QUOTE]
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