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Message: <blockquote data-quote="woodelf" data-source="post: 1463355" data-attributes="member: 10201">I'm not convinced it was stably-declining. I think it was mildly unstable, and not gettnig bigger, but not getting smaller, either. I think that now it's very unstable, and bigger--so if it implodes, it'll do so much more badlier(TM). I'm not talking about the market getting tougher. I'm talking about the accellerated cycle of the market. Part of the problem is that it doesn't make RPG products better, it makes them worse. Look at it like this: Old market:a good product will sell, say, a thousand units a month for 18 monthsa bad product will sell a thousand units the first month, and then maybe another thousand, total, and take a long time to do thatNew market:a good product will sell two thousand units the first month, a thousand units the 2nd, 500 the 3rd, and another 500 total over the next 9moa bad product will sell two thousand units the first month, and then essentially zero after that.[all numbers invented to make the point]Now in the old market there's a huge incentive to make a good product--it'll sell a *lot* more, and you'll probabyl take a bath if it's crap. In the new market, total lifetime sales (and thus printruns) are small enough, and initial sales are brisk enough, that even if you make something awesome you won't get that much more return, and if you make something craptastic you'll probably at least break even.  I've exaggerated to make a point (at least, i hope i have--i'm not privy to detailed sales numbers for anyone, but have heard quite a few ballpark figures from RPG company owners), but the basic idea is sound: when sales are booming and products die off so fast that they really only sell when new anyway, the difference in sales performance between good products and bad goes down, because it's precisely exposure to the product that helsp drive or kill later sales--a lot of the right-when-it-comes-out sales are to people that won't be radically influenced by the quality of the product because their decision to buy (or not) isn't based on the product's reputation (because it doesn't have one yet).For another example of this, look at movie boxoffice totals: crap and genius alike can have really awesome opening weekends. Where you see the money reflect the quality of the film is in staying power.And, just for the record, my belief system is such that i look at all this stuff from the standpointo f the consumer. If i say something is bad, it's because i think it's bad for the consumer (or general public)--i don't care about the companies. This is not to say that i can't be wrong, but i'm certainly not wrong because i believe in coddling the producers.Data point for D&D3.5E being pushed up: Monte Cook, and i think possibly Skip Williams and Ryan Dancey (i'm not sure on my recollection of either of the last two) said that they'd planned from before the release of D&D3E to release a revision in about 5 years, based on their projections of sales. And Ryan has mentioned that initial sales [of D&D3E] were higher than expected.And the fact that one small company, which is probably having trouble making ends meet, is behind on its production schedule isn't a data point at all. Instead, look at the release schedules of somebody like Mongoose, which is doing reasonably well, and probably has the cash flow to print a product more or less as soon as its finished.Unless you were producing non-d20 System products, according to a lot of such producers who couldn't get distributors to touch their stuff.</blockquote>

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