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Message: <blockquote data-quote="DM_Matt" data-source="post: 550069" data-attributes="member: 1213">LIttle is known about its size.  The estimate that I last read was between 200 and 300.  It is definately conceivable that they could produce such large numbers.  Like India and Pakistan (but not like Iraq and North Korea, who signed and cheated), Israel is not a signatory to the NNPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) and has had functioning nuclear reactors for three to four decades.  Because IAEA monitoring is part of the NNPT, there are no limits on their ability to use their reactors for producing nuclear weapons.  They also are thought to have cooperated with the South African nuclear weapons program in the past, possibly gaining some of the nuclear raw materials in which South Africa is rich.HOWEVER, the 200-300 number is based on hypothetical target lists and lots of assumptions regarding reliability and reasonable redundancy.  In other words, the manner in which the size of their arsenal is measured (at least by the U.S.) is based on how many nukes they think Israel would want and the assumption that they in fact have that many.  One of the reasons why determining the size and nature of their arsenal is so difficult is that they are (with the exception of North Korea, which, according to a defecting scientist, has two to five nuclear weapons) the only undeclared nuclear weapons state.  That means that they do not acknowledge their arsenal publicly, for various reasons, but primarily becuase their are certain laws on the books in the United States which trigger automatic restrictions on trade, technology transfers, and foreign aid to nations that acquire nuclear weapons and are not considered legitimate Nuclear Weapons States under the NNPT.What exactly do you tihnk will happen to you if you look up information about national nuclear arsenal sizes on the Internet?</blockquote>

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