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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Pinotage" data-source="post: 2334184" data-attributes="member: 15194">I think you need to look at it a little simpler. Assign 2 probabilities:P(Door chosen holds the artifact) = 33%P(Other Doors hold the artifact) = 66%The thing to remember is that once the dragon choose one of the other doors, the probability that the artifact is behind the other doors doesn't change. So, if there are 3 doors, and you choose 1, then the probability that the artifact is behind the other two doors is 66%. Just because the dragon opens one of those doors, it doesn't mean the probability changes. It stays the same, hence the reason you should switch since now the other door on its own has a 66% chance of holding the artifact. It's probably easier to envisage it if you have 10 or 100 doors and the dragon eliminates all of the other doors but one.So if you have 10 doors, the chance you chose correctly is 10%. The probability that it's behind one of the other 9 doors is 90%. But if you eliminate 8 of those, then the probability still remains 90% that it's behind the other door, again the reason for the switch.Pinotage</blockquote>