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DC of jumping from stalagmite to stalagmite
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<blockquote data-quote="anest1s" data-source="post: 5328533" data-attributes="member: 94230"><p>It depends on how many checks will be needed...</p><p>The more jumps, the more probable is failure.</p><p></p><p>For example, if the rogue has +7 jump, and the dc is 10, he falls if he rolls 1 or 2 (which is 10% probability of falling) and 90% probability of success.</p><p>Like that, if he has to jump 6 pillars with a 10 dc, then the probability of jumping each of them without falling, is:</p><p></p><p>(9/10)^6=0.53</p><p></p><p>Which means that 47% he will fall (if I did the maths right).</p><p></p><p>Now with 14 dc he fails with 1,2,3,4,5 or 6 on the dice, which is a 30% probability to fall. If, in case he falls you allow him a climb check to get a hold and not drop, and we assume the rogue has a +7 climb, with a Climb dc of 17, then 50% of that time he will still survive. This brings the probability of failure down to 15%. And again, for 6 jumps we have</p><p></p><p>(85/100)^6=0.377149516 (37% probability of success) [ok now I get why they use the P(x) symbolism <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f61b.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":P" title="Stick out tongue :P" data-smilie="7"data-shortname=":P" />, for not writing all the time]</p><p></p><p></p><p>Then again, if you allow a jump, a climb to hold, and a second climb to stop somewhere lower, the probability of success goes up...</p><p></p><p>DC 15 jump (35% failure)</p><p>DC 15 climb (12% failure)</p><p>DC 15 climb (4% failure)</p><p>and the actual climb dc to climb up for the next jump </p><p>DC 15 climb (5.5% failure) [from the 8% who will fail the first climb and manage the second,15% will simply fall, by failing their climb by 5 or more <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f61b.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":P" title="Stick out tongue :P" data-smilie="7"data-shortname=":P" /> )</p><p></p><p>Now for 6 jumps, </p><p></p><p>(94.5/100)^6=0.71 71% probability to success, 29% to fall.</p><p></p><p>Because for each additional "save" you allow and for each additional jump you ask you multiply, there is a great difference between making 4, 6 or 10 jumps...(80%, 71%, 56%)</p><p></p><p>And the point of my post is that the more you roll, the more you fail <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f61b.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":P" title="Stick out tongue :P" data-smilie="7"data-shortname=":P" /></p><p></p><p>Because your pc's will use rope <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f61b.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":p" title="Stick out tongue :p" data-smilie="7"data-shortname=":p" /></p><p></p><p></p><p>PS: If I totally failed the math, well, shame on me! But they will still use rope <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f600.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":D" title="Big grin :D" data-smilie="8"data-shortname=":D" /></p><p></p><p>PS2:</p><p>If the jump DC is 15, and if they succeed the DC to not fall is 15, then 57% they will fall...and even with your "save" only 80% will pass. (For just 1 jump)</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="anest1s, post: 5328533, member: 94230"] It depends on how many checks will be needed... The more jumps, the more probable is failure. For example, if the rogue has +7 jump, and the dc is 10, he falls if he rolls 1 or 2 (which is 10% probability of falling) and 90% probability of success. Like that, if he has to jump 6 pillars with a 10 dc, then the probability of jumping each of them without falling, is: (9/10)^6=0.53 Which means that 47% he will fall (if I did the maths right). Now with 14 dc he fails with 1,2,3,4,5 or 6 on the dice, which is a 30% probability to fall. If, in case he falls you allow him a climb check to get a hold and not drop, and we assume the rogue has a +7 climb, with a Climb dc of 17, then 50% of that time he will still survive. This brings the probability of failure down to 15%. And again, for 6 jumps we have (85/100)^6=0.377149516 (37% probability of success) [ok now I get why they use the P(x) symbolism :P, for not writing all the time] Then again, if you allow a jump, a climb to hold, and a second climb to stop somewhere lower, the probability of success goes up... DC 15 jump (35% failure) DC 15 climb (12% failure) DC 15 climb (4% failure) and the actual climb dc to climb up for the next jump DC 15 climb (5.5% failure) [from the 8% who will fail the first climb and manage the second,15% will simply fall, by failing their climb by 5 or more :P ) Now for 6 jumps, (94.5/100)^6=0.71 71% probability to success, 29% to fall. Because for each additional "save" you allow and for each additional jump you ask you multiply, there is a great difference between making 4, 6 or 10 jumps...(80%, 71%, 56%) And the point of my post is that the more you roll, the more you fail :P Because your pc's will use rope :p PS: If I totally failed the math, well, shame on me! But they will still use rope :D PS2: If the jump DC is 15, and if they succeed the DC to not fall is 15, then 57% they will fall...and even with your "save" only 80% will pass. (For just 1 jump) [/QUOTE]
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DC of jumping from stalagmite to stalagmite
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