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Deep Thoughts on AI- The Rise of DM 9000
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<blockquote data-quote="Stalker0" data-source="post: 8941501" data-attributes="member: 5889"><p>the simple truth is…most predictions about the future are wrong, often hilariously so. We humans just aren’t great at it, because we never see the curve balls that come up in the future, we can only extend out based on our current understating.</p><p></p><p>Extending out the current AI scenario, if any of the current AI fundamental models are able to accurately simulate human thinking “reasonably well”, and it’s simply a matter of training, tweaks, and refinement…then we should expect incredible progress in the next few years, anyone who thinks 10 years would be kidding themselves.</p><p></p><p>On the other hand, if the currents models have a fundamental flaw that gets us 80% but no further, then we will likely see a short spurt of rapid growth followed by a brick wall of stalled progress, with years of effort to inch forward. AI will be disruptive but not the all encompassing entity we fear it to be. It won’t be until the next paradigm shift, where someone rethinks the model entirely, that we could then get to that ultimate level.</p><p></p><p>Now again, we can’t see the curveballs. There could be world wide disasters, a virus that takes down the entire internet, we run out of oil and technology starts shutting down, etc etc.</p><p></p><p>But with the curve we are on, we have a large number of smart people with tons of resources working on the problem. Further this isn’t an “impossible” problem like faster than light travel (which current physics tells us is impossible), nature has shown us a thinking mind is possible. So to bet against AI is to bet against human ingenuity’s ability to mimic something in nature…and I would never take that bet.</p><p></p><p>The biggest thing ChatGPT has done is remind us…whether it 1 year, 10, or 50….AI is coming. It probably won’t take the form we expect, and we aren’t ready. Maybe this will be a wake up call for governments to start getting serious about how AI will move in the future, because if they don’t, they will be helpless to catch up as it very quickly takes over.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Stalker0, post: 8941501, member: 5889"] the simple truth is…most predictions about the future are wrong, often hilariously so. We humans just aren’t great at it, because we never see the curve balls that come up in the future, we can only extend out based on our current understating. Extending out the current AI scenario, if any of the current AI fundamental models are able to accurately simulate human thinking “reasonably well”, and it’s simply a matter of training, tweaks, and refinement…then we should expect incredible progress in the next few years, anyone who thinks 10 years would be kidding themselves. On the other hand, if the currents models have a fundamental flaw that gets us 80% but no further, then we will likely see a short spurt of rapid growth followed by a brick wall of stalled progress, with years of effort to inch forward. AI will be disruptive but not the all encompassing entity we fear it to be. It won’t be until the next paradigm shift, where someone rethinks the model entirely, that we could then get to that ultimate level. Now again, we can’t see the curveballs. There could be world wide disasters, a virus that takes down the entire internet, we run out of oil and technology starts shutting down, etc etc. But with the curve we are on, we have a large number of smart people with tons of resources working on the problem. Further this isn’t an “impossible” problem like faster than light travel (which current physics tells us is impossible), nature has shown us a thinking mind is possible. So to bet against AI is to bet against human ingenuity’s ability to mimic something in nature…and I would never take that bet. The biggest thing ChatGPT has done is remind us…whether it 1 year, 10, or 50….AI is coming. It probably won’t take the form we expect, and we aren’t ready. Maybe this will be a wake up call for governments to start getting serious about how AI will move in the future, because if they don’t, they will be helpless to catch up as it very quickly takes over. [/QUOTE]
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