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Message: <blockquote data-quote="WhimsyTheFae" data-source="post: 2660282" data-attributes="member: 8964">One of the side effects of 4GL's and other developments that make programming easier is that you will see a greater span between the lay programmer and the technical specialist.  Standard business applications will be easier to develop and maintain, but will be more cookie-cutter and not require a lot of thought.  Therefore, technical ability and analytical skills will not be as required.  This could have an impact as pay will decline, the talent will decline, the applicants will increase and it will be easier to import work from other countries.On the other hand, as the number of good paying jobs goes down and educational institutes crank out fewer applicants, those with real skill and knowledge will be in more demand.  Though fewer in number, these technical "gurus" will be highly paid and have much security.  Basically, the reduction in necessary skills will rewind the clock on the industry and those with real skill will resemble the IT workforce of years past.This is only my opinion and may not actually come to pass, but I have already seen deteriorating skills with programmers and cookie cutter approaches to applications.  This is good for corporations, as they can retain a more affordable staff and only have to pay a small number of specialists.  This is a bit frightening for the average programmer, though (especially those who are unemployed and trying to find a job without taking too much of a pay cut).  For the most part, we have been able to ride a pretty good wave over the past decade (unfortunately, I came in a bit late and haven't been able to ride it as high as some of my peers).I do not know what emotional tone that your hero will have, but if you want something a bit more cynical/arrogant/desperate, I'm sure that you can extrapolate from these posts (everyone has made some good/gloomy comments) what the future may hold for a programmer.Remember, a niche is a great place to be until you look around and find that everyone has found a way to fit in your niche.</blockquote>

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