Reply to thread

Message

<blockquote data-quote="Derren" data-source="post: 4395073" data-attributes="member: 2518">I know that statistics can produce some pretty strange results, but I still don't get where 25-33-50-100 comes from.When the question is &quot;how high is the chance that the breath weapon recharges at this round&quot;, then the chance is 25% each round as there is a 25% chance for any result on a d4 (recharge after 1 round? 25%, recharge after 2 rounds? 25% And so on).When the question is &quot;How high is the chance that the breath weapon has recharged by now?&quot; you get a 25-50-75-100 result.Maybe the real question was &quot;How high is the chance that the breath weapon is usable this turn?&quot; (although I don't read it that way) which figures in the chance of &quot;If the breath weapon recharged on turn 1, how high is the chance that the dragon can breath on turn 2&quot; and I am too lazy to calculate that. But I don't think that this is the correct question because then the 100% chance on the 4th round wouldn't make sense as it is possible that the dragon can not breath on turn 4 (for example when it breathed on round 3 and rolled a 2).</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Derren, post: 4395073, member: 2518"] I know that statistics can produce some pretty strange results, but I still don't get where 25-33-50-100 comes from. When the question is "how high is the chance that the breath weapon recharges at this round", then the chance is 25% each round as there is a 25% chance for any result on a d4 (recharge after 1 round? 25%, recharge after 2 rounds? 25% And so on). When the question is "How high is the chance that the breath weapon has recharged by now?" you get a 25-50-75-100 result. Maybe the real question was "How high is the chance that the breath weapon is usable this turn?" (although I don't read it that way) which figures in the chance of "If the breath weapon recharged on turn 1, how high is the chance that the dragon can breath on turn 2" and I am too lazy to calculate that. But I don't think that this is the correct question because then the 100% chance on the 4th round wouldn't make sense as it is possible that the dragon can not breath on turn 4 (for example when it breathed on round 3 and rolled a 2). [/QUOTE]

Verification